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Analysis: GOP needs an (unlikely) Southern sweep to take back the Senate
Republicans face a tall order of ousting incumbents in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina and keeping a seat in Kentucky
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com
This year, 13 of the 14 Southern states — all save Florida — will have a Senate election. And a look at the map shows that the GOP needs to make a Shermanesque march across the South to have any hope of taking the Senate.
Barring any unforseen upsets, we can take nine of the 15 Southern races off the board — Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas and two in Oklahoma.
In all of those states except Virginia and Georgia, Republican incuments are running again and are likely to win. One of the GOP-held seats in Oklahoma is open but unlikely to turn blue.
In Virginia, Democrat Mark Warner is running and favored, although the entry into the race of former Bush aide and GOP bigwig Ed Gillespie could make it interesting. The seat in Georgia is open, but, given the Peach State’s Republican proclivities, the party’s nominee would be in the driver’s seat.
That leaves five Southern races that will be pivotal — Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Kentucky. Democrats hold four of those seats; Republicans, only Kentucky.
If Republicans sweep all five of those seats, they will make a net gain of four seats. That would be enough to take control of the Senate if, as expected, the GOP takes away open Democratic seats in Montana and South Dakota.
But that also means that there is little room for error. Nearly all of the Southern dominoes have to fall the right way. And that’s easier said than done.
Louisiana is perhaps the weakest link for Republicans, who have been trying, and failing, to get Mary Landrieu out of the Senate for the past 18 years. She has proven herself to be the tabby cat of Louisiana politics — and of her nine lives, only three are spent.
North Carolina is also no slam dunk for the GOP, which is trying to defeat freshman Senator Kay Hagan. This is a state, after all, that Barack Obama carried in 2008 and almost carried in 2012, and the place where John Edwards won a Senate seat not that long ago.
In Arkansas, Senator Mark Pryor is in the political fight of his life against U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton. Yet, Pryor holds one of the most storied names in Arkansas political history. And this, remember, is the Land of Clinton, where Democrats still hold most of the statewide offices.
In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is facing a brutal primary fight with Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin, with Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes waiting in the wings.
Smart money is still on McConnell, mainly because he has a mountain of money and is running in a state Obama lost by more than 20 points. But there is no question he faces a battle for survival.
At the end of the day, Republicans are likely to some of these Southern seats, maybe even most of them. But a complete sweep would seem to be a stretch.
So if they want to take back the Senate, Republicans may need to expand the map.
The best prospects for that are races in Michigan and Iowa, where Democratic incumbents are retiring, and New Hampshire, where one-time GOP star Scott Brown may cross the border from Masschusetts to take on Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Another possibility is Alaska, where Republicans have high hopes of ousting Democatic Senator Mark Begich.
Virgnia is another possibility, although Democrats could potentially also make Georgia competitive.
Any way you slice it, though, the South is where Senate control will be won or lost — and where the GOP will need the run of a lifetime in 2014.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor will face primary challenge in Virginia
Dave Brat says he’ll bring “true conservative representation” to Congress, tying Cantor to President Obama
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
RICHMOND (CFP) — Add one more name to the list of Republican leaders in Congress facing a primary challenge from their Tea Party flank — House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
Cantor challenger Dave Brat
Dave Brat, 49, an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College who lives in Henrico County, announced January 9 that he would seek the 7th District seat in Virginia, which Cantor first won in 2000.
“This will be a tough campaign, but I believe the Seventh District deserves better, and that we can restore government to the people,” Brat said in an announcement of his candidacy posted on his Web site.
Brat’s site features a picture of Cantor standing next to Obama, with the caption “Reforming Washington.”
Brat told the National Review that his campaign would “rattle some cages.”
“I want to be Eric Cantor’s term limit,” Brat said.
However, Brat will face a major hurdle in trying to unseat Cantor — cash. The congessman raised more than $3 million during the first nine months of 2013 and had $1.8 million in cash on hand, according to figures filed with the Federal Election Commission.
The 7th District includes northern and western areas of metro Richmond, then stretches northwest to the Shenandoah Valley. It is solidly but not overhwlemingly Republican, giving Mitt Romney 57 percent of the vote in 2012 percent of the vote.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor
Cantor, 50, from Richmond, is second in the GOP hierarchy, behind House Speaker John Boehner. He won with 58 percent of the vote iin 2012, which was the closest election he’s had since first coming to the House.
Cantor has the distinction of being the only Jewish Republican in Congress.
Canton and Boehner have run into criticism from some Tea Party groups over their support for immigration reform and a recent budget deal reached with Democrats to avoid another government shutdown.
Tea Party activists have vowed to fund a primary challenge to Boehner back home in Ohio. Meanwhile, the two top Republicans in the Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Minority Whip John Cornyn of Texas, are both facing primary challengers in 2014.
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr resigns over ethics charges
Three days after vowing he would stay in office, Darr says he no longer wants to subject his family to the “toxic business” of politics
♦Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitcs.com editor
LITTLE ROCK (CFP) — Facing impeachment and pressure for his resignation from within his own Republican Party, Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr says he is quitting, effective February 1.
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr
“Politics can be a toxic business,” Darr said in a statement announcing his departure. “I will no longer subject my family to its hard lessons. All my forgiveness to those who play the games and all my respect and appreciation to those who serve with class and humility.”
Darr did not identify who he meant by “those who play the games.” However, he made a point in his statement that he was submitting his resignation “to the people of Arkansas, not an elected official.”
That was possibly an oblique reference to the Natural State’s Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who had called on Darr to step down. The governor learned about Darr’s resignation from local media.
Beebe’s office later released a statement saying Darr’s decision to quit “is the best decision for the state of Arkansas and for Lieutenant Governor Darr.”
Darr said he had notified House Speaker Davy Carter and Senate President Pro-Tempore Michael Lamoureaux of his plans to step aside.
State law calls for a special election to be held to fill the remaining 11 months of Darr’s term. However, legislators are considering waiving that election, as was done in 2006 when then-Lieutenant Governor Win Rockefeller died in office.
The State Ethics Commission fined Darr $11,000 for violations relating to his 2010 campaign and during his time as lieutenant governor.
In its report, the commission said Darr made personal use of more than $31,000 in campaign funds and charged more than $3,500 of personal expenses on a state-issued credit card.
He was also cited for receiving improper reimbursement for nearly $3,600 in travel expenses from his home in Springdale to his office in Little Rock. The commission also sanctioned him for misreporting money he raised after the election to pay off loans he made to the campaign.
Darr conceded that he made mistakes and apologized. But in a lengthy defense issued January 7, he insisted there was “no malicious intentional disregard of the law” on his part.
He said he was entitled to accept the contributions to pay off the campaign debt and that he actually saved the state money by seeking mileage reimbursement for use of his personal vehicle, rather than having the Arkansas State Police carry him around.
After the report was issued, Beebe and the state’s entire congressional delegation — including five Republicans — called for his resignation. After a defiant Darr said he would not resign, Democrats in the state legislature said they would seek his impeachment.
Republican legislative leaders ratched up the pressure by saying they would call a special session to consider impeachment, rather than handling it in a budget session scheduled to begin in February. Darr could have been forced to pay the cost of the special session if he were removed.
Darr, 40, was a little-known restauranteur with no political experience when he won the lieutenant governorship in 2010, a campaign he based partially on his opposition to Obamacare.
He abandoned a campaign for the open 4th District U.S. House seat after his ethics problems came to light last summer.
Democratic North Carolina U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre will retire in 2014
McIntyre’s decision to step aside will give Republicans a prime opportunity to pick up a House seat
WILMINGTON, North Carolina (CFP) — Saying it is time for a “new chapter,” Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre has announced he will not battle to keep a seat he won by just 650 votes in 2012.
U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre
“I am grateful to all of the Democrats, Republicans and independents with whom we have successfully worked through nine elections over 18 years,” McIntyre said in a statement announcing his retirement. “My family and I are ready for a new chapter and excited about new opportunities to continue helping North Carolina.”
McIntyre’s 7th district, which takes in the southeastern corner of the state including areas around Wilminton and Fayettevile, was one of five Democrat-held seats in the South that Mitt Romney carried in 2012.
As Romney was clobbering President Obama by 19 percentage points, McIntyre, a member of the House’s moderate Blue Dog Coalition, barely escaped with a victory over Republican State Senator David Rouser.
Rouser is running again in 2014. McIntyre was also facing a potentially competitive Democratic primary against New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield, who has criticized McIntyre for not beng sufficiently supportive of the president.
McIntyre is white; Barfield is black. Overall, the district is 30 percent black, which means the black vote could tread close to a majority in a Democratic primary.
Of the five Democrat-held Southern districts that Romney carried, McIntyre is so far the only retirement.
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr refuses calls to resign
Democrats plan to push for Darr’s impeachment for violating state ethics rules
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com
LITTLE ROCK (CFP) — A defiant Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr says he will not resign, triggering a likely impeachment showdown in the Arkansas legislature over his violations of state ethics rules
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr
“I am not downplaying what has occurred, but there is no scandal, no conspiracy and no malicious intentional disregard of the law,” Darr, a Republican, said in a lengthy defense issued January 7.
“Today I put a stake in the ground. Not for this office, not for the title or the job, but I put a stake in the ground for those Arkansans who are sick and tired of these types of political games and the people who play them.”
Darr did not elaborate on who he believes is playing political games. But he insisted that his violations of state ethics rules, which drew an $11,000 fine from the state’s ethics commission, were unintentional.
Democratic Governor Mike Beebe and all five Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation have called on Darr to resign. That would trigger a special election, which Darr said would be a waste of a million dollars of taxpayer money.
But Democrats in the state House of Representatives have said they will push for Darr to be impeached if he does not resign. The next legislative session begins February 10.
Republican House Speaker Davy Carter said his office “is contemplating a couple of avenues in which to provide a proper process should the majority of members decide to pursue impeachment.”
An impeachment in Arkansas would be uncharted territory, as it has apparently never been done under the state’s current constitution, which dates to 1874.
Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House, which currently has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one Green Party member. That would mean that Darr would have to hold all of his fellow Republicans in line in order to avoid impeachment.
Darr’s prospects in the Senate — where he is the presiding officer — would seem to be better. There are currently 21 Republicans and only 13 Democrats, with one vacancy. Removing Darr would require at least 24 votes.
Darr, 40, a restaurant owner from Springdale, had never held elective office before winning the lieutenant governorship in 2010. He based his campaign, in part, on opposition to Obamacare.
He abandoned a campaign for the open 4th District U.S. House seat after his ethics problems first came to light last summer.
In its report, the ethics commission said Darr made personal use of more than $31,000 in campaign funds and charged more than $3,500 of personal expenses on a state-issued credit card. He was also cited for receiving improper reimbursement for nearly $3,600 in travel expenses from his home in Springdale to his office in Little Rock.
He was also cited for mistakes in his campaign finance reports.
In his statement, Darr conceded that he accepted the travel reimbursement for use of his personal vehicle. But he said that actually saved the state money because he was entitled to use the Arkansas State Police for travel and security, which would have been much more expensive.
He said the improper use of the state-issued credit card was for “purchases that were either for official state use or used by mistake while traveling. As soon as the errors were realized, I reimbursed the state for those charges.”
The mistakes in his campaign finance reports, Darr said, stemmed from repayment of a $170,000 loan that he made to his campaign. After he was elected, he raised money to pay the loan back and made mistakes in reporting those contributions, which he said were corrected as soon as they were brought to his attention.
“I want you to know that at the end of the day, the only money that ever came back to me, in whatever form, was a repayment of campaign debt that was legally owed to me,” Darr said.
Darr apologized to the people of Arkansas and conceded that “this has been an embarrassing time for my family and me.”
“When history is recorded I want my children to know that I have owned up to mistakes and made them right,” he said.
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