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Decision 2020: 14 Southern U.S. Senate seats on November ballot, with 4 possible flips

Races in North Carolina, Alabama on national radar; Lindsey Graham faces stiff challenge in South Carolina

♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor

Fourteen Southern U.S. Senate seats will be on the ballot in November, putting half of the South’s seats in play with control of the chamber very much up for grabs.

Of these seats, one presents a likely pickup opportunity for Republicans, while three Republican incumbents are facing stiff challenges. Three other seats are somewhat competitive but with incumbents still favored, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell‘s race in Kentucky.

Five senators — four Republicans and one Democrat — are cruising toward re-election, with Republicans also likely to keep an open seat in Tennessee. A special election in Georgia with candidates from both parties running in the same race is a wild card that will be difficult to predict — and could potentially decide which part controls the Senate when the dust clears.

Here is your guide to the 2020 Southern Senate races.

Possible Flips

1. Alabama: U.S. Senator Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)

Jones has had a target on his back since he won a special election in 2017 over Republican Roy Moore, whose candidacy imploded in a sex scandal. Jones was the first Democrat elected to a Senate seat in the Yellowhammer State since 1992; his vote to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial has put his continued tenure in jeopardy. Tuberville, the former head football coach at Auburn University, is making his political debut, impressively taking out a field of prominent Republicans in the primary, including Jeff Sessions, who held this seat for 20 years before leaving to join the Trump administration. If Jones somehow manages to hang on, it will be perhaps the biggest surprise on election night.

2. North Carolina: U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R) vs.  Cal Cunningham (D)

Cunningham, an attorney who served a single term in the legislature 20 years ago and made an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2010, was recruited by Democratic leaders in Washington to run against Tillis, who is seeking a second term after ousting former Democratic Senator Kay Hagin in 2014. This seat was once held by Jesse Helms, and no one has managed to win a second term since he gave it up in 2002. Cunningham has raised $15 million, slightly more than Tillis, and has led consistently in polls. The outcome of the presidential race in this battleground state may be key here. If Donald Trump wins, Tillis is likely to keep his seat as well; if he doesn’t, Cunningham will be in the driver’s seat.

3. South Carolina: U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D)

Over the past four years, Graham has become one of Trump’s biggest cheerleaders, after spending much of the 2016 campaign trashing him. That about-face spared him from the kind of primary challenge he had to beat back in 2014, but Harrison, a former state Democratic party chair, is hoping Graham’s association with the president will turn off enough Palmetto State voters to put him over the top. Harrison has raised a staggering $30 million — an unheard of sum for a Democrat in South Carolina — to stay even with the incumbent in the money chase. While polling shows the race is competitive, Trump is expected to carry the state, and the universe of Trump-Harrison voters may be too small to flip this seat.

4. Georgia: U.S Senator David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)

It’s been a long time since Georgia has been competitive in a presidential or senatorial contest, but polling has shown Ossoff within striking distance of Perdue, who is seeking a second term. Ossoff built a national profile by raising more than $30 million for a special U.S. House election in 2017 that he narrowly lost. He hasn’t raised anywhere near that kind of money this time around, and Perdue enjoys a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage. Democrats insist that the Peach State’s changing demographics and an influx of newly energized, newly registered Democratic voters will lead to victory for Ossoff and Democratic nominee Joe Biden; Republicans scoff at such a scenario as delusional. If Biden makes a serious play for Georgia, it could help Ossoff; if Biden wins, Perdue will need to run ahead of Trump to survive.

Less Competitive

1. Texas: U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R) vs. MJ Hegar (D)

Democrats had high hopes for flipping this seat, particularly after Beto O’Rourke nearly took out Ted Cruz in 2018. But O’Rourke passed on the Senate race to make a quixotic bid for president, and Hegar, a former military chopper pilot and Afghan war veteran who lost a House race in 2018, had to spend time and money fighting her way through a primary runoff. Cornyn entered the fall campaign with the benefit of incumbency and a huge financial advantage, in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. This could turn out to be a might-have-been race for Democrats — what might have been if O’Rouke had run instead.

2. Kentucky: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)

Democratic leaders recruited McGrath for this race, enthused by her prodigious fundraising during an unsuccessful House race in 2018. But running against McConnell in Kentucky is a tall order, and she has not always seemed up to the task. Her campaign had an unsteady launch when she flipped positions on confirming Brett Kavanaugh, and she very nearly lost the Democratic primary after mishandling her response to racial justice protests that have roiled Louisville. After an uneven campaign, she decided change campaign managers in August, which is never a good sign. There’s a reason Mitch McConnell has been a senator since 1985 — he is perhaps the wiliest politician of his generation. His tenure in Washington seems likely to endure.

3. Mississippi: U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs. former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D)

This race is a rematch of 2018, when Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 8 points in a special election runoff, running nearly 10 points behind what Trump did in 2016. Espy was encouraged enough by his showing to try to take her down again, hoping that the energy unleashed by social justice protests will galvanize black voters, who make up 37percent of the state’s electorate, the highest percentage in the country. However, if he couldn’t beat Hyde-Smith in a lower turnout midterm election, beating her with the presidential election on the ballot, in a very pro-Trump state, is likely to be a tall order.

Wild Card

Georgia: U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins (R), Raphael Warnock (D) and Matt Lieberman (D)

In this special election to fill the seat vacated by Johnny Isakson, candidates from all parties run in the same race, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a December runoff. Loeffler is trying to keep this seat after being appointed to the post by Gov. Brian Kemp, who opted to pick the political newcomer instead of Collins, one of Trump’s biggest champions in the House. Collins defied the governor to run against Loeffler, splitting Peach State Republicans into two camps.

On the Democratic side, Warnock, the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, has drawn support from the party establishment who see him as the best option to win the seat. But Lieberman, the son of former Connecticut U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, has resisted pressure to leave the race in favor of Warnock, and polls have shown him remaining competitive. If Warnock and Lieberman split the Democratic vote, it could clear the way for both Loeffler and Collins to meet in an all-GOP second round. If one Republican and one Democrat get through, the outcome of the race is likely to depend on who those two candidates are.

Shoo-Ins

Arkansas: U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (R) faces no Democratic competition after the lone Democrat who qualified abruptly left the race. The only person standing between Cotton and re-election is Libertarian Ricky Harrington.

Tennessee: Republican Bill Hagerty, the former U.S. ambassador to Japan, has a much easier path to Washington after the Democrat recruited and financed by party leaders to challenge for the seat lost his primary. He will now face Marquita Bradshaw, an environmental activist from Memphis who harnessed grassroots support to win the primary.

West Virginia: U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R) is not expected to have much trouble against Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin, an environmental activist who gained national exposure when her 2018 race against the state’s other U.S. senator, Joe Manchin, was featured in the Netflix documentary “Knock Down The House.”

Oklahoma: If U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R), as expected, wins a fifth full term over Democrat Abby Broyles, he will be 92 when this term ends in 2026. Broyles, a former TV reporter in Oklahoma City, has run a spirited campaign in which she’s needled the senator for refusing to debate her.

Virginia: Giving the Old Dominion’s increasingly Democratic tilt, U.S. Senator Mark Warner (D) is a clear favorite over Republican Daniel Gade, a former Army officer who was wounded in Iraq and now teaches at American University in Washington.

Louisiana: U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy (R) is competing in a jungle primary in November and will face a runoff in December if he doesn’t clear 50%. He avoided any major Republican opposition; the biggest Democratic name in the race is Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins.

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Establishment pick Bill Hagerty wins Tennessee Republican U.S. Senate primary

Republicans in East Tennessee pick Diana Harshbarger as a successor for retiring GOP U.S. Rep. Phil Roe

♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor

NASHVILLE (CFP) — With the backing of President Donald Trump and the Republican establishment, Bill Hagerty, the former U.S. ambassador to Japan, has won his party’s nomination for an open U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee.

Hagerty took 51% in Thursday’s vote to 39% for Manny Sethi, a Nashville orthopedic trauma surgeon. He will now face Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, a Memphis environmental activist, in November’s general election.

Bradshaw, who spent less than $10,000 on her primary campaign, was the surprise winner of the Democratic primary over Nashville attorney James Mackler, who had raised more than $2 million for the race but could only muster a third-place finish.

Also in Thursday’s primary, Republicans in the 1st U.S. House District in East Tennessee picked Kingsport pharmacist Diana Harshbarger as their nominee to replace retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Phil Roe, making her a prohibitive favorite to win in November in the state’s most Republican district.

Hagerty speaks at victory rally in Gallatin (WBIR via YouTube)

Hagerty, 60, a former private equity executive and state economic development official, left his post in Tokyo to pursue the Senate seat after incumbent U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander announced his retirement last summer.

He received an immediate endorsement from Trump, despite the fact that Hagerty had backed Trump rival Jeb Bush in the 2016 election and has a long association with 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, the only Republican senator to vote for Trump’s impeachment.

Speaking to supporters at a victory celebration in his hometown of Gallatin, Hagerty thanked Trump, who he said “had my back since before the beginning of this.”

“Thank you for being the inspiration for me, President Trump. I look forward to help you continue moving forward,” he said. “We’ve got to stand up to the radicals in Washington that want to push us off the cliff into socialism.”

Hagerty had put together a collection of disparate supporters that included not only Trump, his son Donald Jr., and Fox News host Sean Hannity, but also support from Bush, Romney and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Sethi countered with endorsements of his own from U.S. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, along with conservative groups such as the Family Research Council, Gun Owners of America, and the anti-abortion Tennessee Heartbeat Coalition.

The race grew contentious and both men competed for the Trump mantle. Hagerty’s campaign branded Sethi as a “Never Trumper” and highlighted the fact that he was a finalist for a White House fellowship under former President Barack Obama; Sethi’s returned the favor by highlighting Hagerty’s ties to Romney and Bush.

Given that Tennessee hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years, Hagerty will be a heavy favorite in November against Bradshaw, who won her primary with 36% of the vote.

In the 1st District, which stretches from the Tri-Cities west toward Knoxville, the Republican primary to replace Roe turned into a 14-candidate free-for-all. Harshbarger won with 19%, followed by State Rep. Timothy Hill from Blountville at 17% and State Senator Rusty Crowe from Johnson City at 16%.

Because Tennessee does not have primary runoffs, Harshberg won with a plurality and will now face Democrat Blair Walsingham, a farmer from Hawkins County, in November.

The Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the state’s most Republican district, which the party has held continuously for 140 years.

In other races in Thursday’s primary, the two Democrats in the Volunteer State’s congressional delegation — U.S. Reps. Jim Cooper of Nashville and Steve Cohen of Memphis — both easily turned back primary challenges, although Cooper was held to 54%.

Uniquely among states, Tennessee holds its primary elections on Thursdays, rather than Tuesdays, although the general election in November will be held on a Tuesday as it is in the rest of the country.

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The fundraising leader in the race is Diana Harshbarger, a Kingsport pharmacist who has raised nearly $1.5 million. She’s followed by Josh Gapp, a Knoxville pathologist who had initially run in the Senate primary until Roe announced his retirement, and former Kingsport Mayor John Clark.

Also in the race are State Senator Rusty Crowe from Johnson City; State Rep. David Hawk from Greeneville; State Rep. Timothy Hill from Blountville; and former Johnson City Mayor Steve Darden.

Hotly contested Republican U.S. Senate race highlights Thursday’s primary ballot in Tennessee

Voters in East Tennessee will also pick a successor for retiring GOP U.S. Rep. Phil Roe

♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor

NASHVILLE (CFP) — Tennessee Republicans will decide a contentious battle for an open U.S. Senate seat in Thursday’s primary election, settling what has become a proxy battle between libertarian and establishment voices within the national GOP.

Also, Thursday, 14 Republicans are competing for the nomination in the 1st U.S. House District in East Tennessee, with the winner a prohibitive favorite to take over the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Phil Roe.

Poll opening times in the Volunteer State vary by county; polls close in the Eastern time zone at 8 p.m. and at 7 p.m. in the Central time zone.

Bill Hagerty and Manny Sethi

In the Senate race, Bill Hagerty, the former U.S. ambassador to Japan, is locked in a tight race for the Republican nomination against Manny Sethi, a Nashville orthopedic trauma surgeon.

Thirteen other Republicans are also in the race, including former Shelby County commissioner and unsuccessful 2018 U.S. House candidate George Flinn, who has poured $5 million of his own money into the contest.

The seat is open because of the retirement of Republican U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander, who has held it for the past 18 years.

Hagerty, the establishment choice, has put together a collection of disparate endorsements that includes not only President Donald Trump, his son Donald Jr., and Fox News host Sean Hannity, but also support from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Sethi has countered with endorsements of his own from U.S. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, along with conservative groups such as the Family Research Council, Gun Owners of America, and the anti-abortion Tennessee Heartbeat Coalition.

Hagerty’s campaign has branded Sethi as a “Never Trumper” and highlighted the fact that he was a finalist for a White House fellowship under former President Barack Obama. Sethi has returned the favor by noting that Hagerty gave large campaign contributions to Romney’s presidential campaigns and served as a delegate for Jeb Bush during his 2016 race against Trump.

Tennessee does not have primary runoffs, so whichever candidate emerges from Thursday’s vote with a plurality will be the party’s nominee.

The Democratic contest features six candidates, with Nashville attorney James Mackler, who is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, seen as the favorite.

Tennessee hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years, and the nominee who emerges from the Republican will be a prohibitive favorite in November, although Mackler has raised more than $2 million so far.

In the 1st District, which stretches from the Tri-Cities west toward Knoxville, the Republican primary has turned into a 14-candidate free-for-all.

The fundraising leader in the race is Diana Harshbarger, a Kingsport pharmacist who has raised nearly $1.5 million. She’s followed by Josh Gapp, a Knoxville pathologist who had initially run in the Senate primary until Roe announced his retirement, and former Kingsport Mayor John Clark.

Also in the race are State Senator Rusty Crowe from Johnson City; State Rep. David Hawk from Greeneville; State Rep. Timothy Hill from Blountville; and former Johnson City Mayor Steve Darden.

The winner of the Republican contest will face Democrat Blair Walsingham, a farmer from Hawkins County. The Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the state’s most Republican district, which the party has held continuously for 140 years.

Uniquely among states, Tennessee holds its primary elections on Thursdays, rather than Tuesdays, although the general election in November will be held on a Tuesday as it is in the rest of the country.

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MJ Hegar wins Texas Democratic U.S. Senate runoff, will take on John Cornyn

Donald Trump’s former White House doctor Ronny Jackson wins U.S. House runoff in Panhandle; Pete Sessions makes a comeback

♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor

AUSTIN (CFP) — Former Air Force combat pilot MJ Hegar has won the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn for a seat that Democrats have hopes of flipping in November.

Hegar, who had the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, defeated State Senator Royce West of Dallas by a margin of 52% to 48% in Tuesday’s runoff and now faces the task of pulling off something no Democrat has done in 32 years — win a Senate race in the Lone Star State.

Texas Democratic U.S. Senate nominee MJ Hegar

In a victory statement, Hegar vowed to run “a Texas-sized winning campaign that will take down Sen. Cornyn and deliver real results on health care, racial justice, economic opportunity, climate change, immigration and gun violence.”

The Cornyn campaign responded with a statement calling her “Hollywood Hegar,” because of her out-of-state support, and noting that she barely beat West even though she and her allies outspent him on advertising by a margin of 100 to 1.

“Senator Cornyn is prepared to face whatever comes his way,” his campaign said.

In other Texas runoff races, Ronny Jackson — the former White House doctor whom President Trump tried and failed to install as Veterans’ Affairs secretary in 2018 — won a Republican runoff for a U.S. House seat in the Panhandle, making him the favorite to win in November in the Republican leaning 13th District.

Jackson now faces the winner of the Democratic runoff, Gus Trujillo, who works for a Latino business group in Amarillo.

In the Waco-based 17th DistrictPete Sessions, a former House Republican leader who lost his Dallas-area seat in 2018, made a comeback by winning a runoff in a new district. He will face Rick Kennedy, a software developer from Round Rock, in November; the Republican lean of this district will also make Sessions the favorite.

In other Texas U.S. House runoffs Tuesday:

In the 10th District (East Texas between Austin and Houston), Mike Siegel won the Democratic runoff for the right to face incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul in a race that Democrats have targeted as a pickup opportunity.

In the 22nd District (Southern Houston suburbs), Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls won the Republican runoff and will face Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni in a race that Democrats have also targeted. The winner will replace retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Olson.

In the 23rd District (West Texas between San Antonio and El Paso), the Republican runoff may be headed into overtime after Tony Gonzales ended election night with a scant seven vote lead over Raul Reyes in a race fill the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Will Hurd.

The runoff pitted U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, who endorsed Reyes, against Trump, who endorsed Gonzales. In the closing days of the race, Trump’s campaign sent Reyes a cease-and-desist order over a mailer that implied he had the president’s endorsement.

The winner will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who nearly defeated Hurd in 2018 in the state’s most competitive House district.

In the 24th District (Metro Dallas-Ft. Worth), Candace Valenzuela, a school board member in Carrollton-Farmers Branch, won the Democratic nomination and will face the Republican nominee, former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, in the race to succeed incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant, which Democrats are also targeting.

In the 31st District (Northern Austin suburbs), Donna Imam, an Austin computer engineer, won the Democratic runoff to face incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Carter, who is also on the Democrats’ target list.

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Donald Trump gets his revenge as Jeff Sessions goes down to defeat

Sessions crushed by Tommy Tuberville in Alabama U.S. Senate GOP runoff

♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor

MONTGOMERY (CFP) — Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was crushed Tuesday in his quest to reclaim the U.S. Senate seat he gave up to serve in Donald Trump’s Cabinet, in a sweeping triumph for the president and his Twitter feed.

Tommy Tuberville, the former head football coach at Auburn University who was making his first run for elective office, took 61% to 39% for Sessions, carrying 64 of the state’s 67 counties.

“Thank you for your trust, your confidence. Your message of change is loud and clear,” Tuberville told supporters at a victory party in Montgomery, where he went directly after his November opponent, Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones.

Republican Alabama U.S. Senate nominee Tommy Tuberville addresses supporters in Montgomery (WVTM via YouTube)

“In Doug Jones’ Alabama, you take your marching orders from Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and the bartender AOC,” Tuberville said, referring to New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“Doug Jones’ Alabama is not the conservative state we love and embrace and defend. It’s a liberal fantasy,” he said.

Jones won a special election in 2017 in deep red Alabama after the Republican nominee, Roy Moore, imploded in a sex scandal. He is considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country this year.

Jones issued a statement after Tuberville’s win saying Alabama voters will have a choice in November between “an unprepared hyper partisan that will add to the divide in Washington, or my proven track-record to find common ground and get things done.”

Tuesday’s result was an ignominious defeat for Sessions, who represented Alabama in the Senate for 20 years and built a political brand so potent that Democrats didn’t even both to contest his election the last time he ran in 2014.

But this time around, he could not overcome the implacable opposition of Trump, who has never forgiven Sessions for recusing himself from the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Trump endorsed Tuberville, made robocalls on his behalf, and used his Twitter feed to needle Sessions throughout the campaign. But Sessions continued to insist that he fully supported the president and his agenda.

“The people of Alabama have spoken, and they want a new leader, a new fresh face to go to Washington,” Sessions said at an election night event in Mobile where he was surrounded by eight of his grandchildren. “We felt like we were beginning to make some progress here at the very end, but it wasn’t enough.”

Sessions said he had “no regrets” about the decision to recuse himself, insisting that legally, he had no other choice.

“I was honored to serve the people of Alabama in the Senate, and I was extraordinarily proud of the accomplishments we had as attorney general,” he said. “I leave elective office with my integrity intact.”

Trump took to Twitter to congratulate Tuberville on the result, refraining from any direct attack on Sessions, although he dismissed Jones as “a terrible Senator who is just a Super Liberal puppet for Schumer & Pelosi.”

Alabama Republicans also decided competitive runoffs for two open U.S. House seats Tuesday.

In the 1st District (Mobile and southwest Alabama), Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl edged out former State Senator Bill Hightower for the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side of the ballot, James Averhart, a retired Marine who runs a non-profit that works to reintegrate former prisoners into society, won the Democratic nomiination over Kiani Gardner.

Carl will be the favorite in November in the heavily Republican district. U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne gave up the seat to make a losing U.S. Senate bid against Sessions and Tuberville.

In the 2nd District (Montgomery and southeast Alabama), former State Rep. Barry Moore defeated businessman Jeff Coleman and will be a heavy favorite in the fall against Democrat Phyllis Harvey-Hall. The seat opened up with the retirement of Republican U.S. Rep. Martha Roby.

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