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Analysis: Election results show Democrats are still a long way from being competitive in the South

Clinton performed worse in the South than Barack Obama in 2012

♦By Rich Shumate, editor

election-central-16(CFP) — Prior to the November 8 election, Democrats were publicly hopeful that they might finally be turning back Republican hegemony in the South, to the degree that pro-Hillary Clinton ads were running not only in the battleground states of Florida and North Carolina but also in reliably Republican Georgia and Texas.

Election results show that thinking was not just wishful, it was magical.CFP Facebook Mugshot

In fact, Clinton did comparatively worse in the South than Barack Obama did four years ago (which, oddly, seems to undercut the notion that the South’s resistance to Obama was based on his race.) A look at regional and state-by-state figures in the presidential race shows just how grim election night was for Southerners with a D attached to their name.

Donald Trump carried 53.3 percent of the vote and 13 out of 14 Southern states. That performance was not as good as Mitt Romney’s in 2012, when he came in with 54.4 percent (although Romney only carried 12 states.) However, the performance gap between Trump and Clinton was actually larger than the gap between Romney and Obama because Clinton’s underperformance was even worse.

She took just 42.5 percent of the Southern vote; Obama won 44.3 percent. Some of that was due to a larger third-party vote which, at 4.2 percent, was about 3 points more than it was in 2012. However, the gap between the Republican and Democratic share of the vote went up everywhere except Texas and Georgia and the lone Southern state Clinton carried, Virginia.

A look at raw vote totals shows the degree to which Clinton hemorrhaged Obama supporters.

In Mississippi, Clinton’s raw vote total was nearly 101,000 less than Obama’s in 2012, a huge shift in a state where less than 1.2 million votes were cast. Given that African-Americans play an outsized role in the state’s Democratic base, Clinton’s numbers are a clear sign that black voters did not turn out for her as they did for Obama.

But if Mississippi was bad for Clinton, Appalachia was even worse — down 51,000 votes in Kentucky, 92,000 in Tennessee, and 52,000 votes in West Virginia, where Trump’s percentage of the vote soared 15 points above Romney’s number. Those three states together have 270 counties; she carried exactly five.

In Arkansas, where Clinton was first lady and her husband governor for 10 years, she lost 16,000 votes and managed just 33.6 percent of the vote, 3.3 points lower than Obama’s vote in 2012. At the same time, Trump’s vote went up 34,000 over Romney’s, a net difference of nearly 50,000 votes.

Even in Virginia, which Clinton won, her vote total was 11,000 less than what Obama put up in 2016. She won because Virginia Trump’s vote total came in less than Romney’s by about 59,000 votes.

Meanwhile, as Clinton’s vote was fading, Trump’s was surging, beating 2012 GOP totals in every state except Virginia and Mississippi.

In Florida, where a growing Latino population was supposed to lead Clinton to victory, Trump added 442,000 votes to Romney’s tally, while Clinton added just 245,000 to Obama’s. In North Carolina, he added 69,000; she lost 16,000 in a battleground state she visited repeatedly.

In total across the South, Trump added more than 1 million votes to Romney’s haul; Clinton managed to add 448,000 by offsetting her losses in 11 states with gains in Texas, Florida and Georgia.

This led to some remarkable net vote changes between the two parties — 128,000 in Alabama, 166,000 in Kentucky, 150,000 in Tennessee and 118,000 in West Virginia.

The only glimmer of light at the end of this dark tunnel for Democrats was their improved performance in both Georgia and Texas.

In the presidential race, Democrats closed the gap with Republicans from 8 to 5 points in Georgia and 16 points to 9 points in Texas. Clinton also carried two big suburban counties in Atlanta, Cobb and Gwinnett, that had not gone Democratic in 40 years, along with Fort Bend County in suburban Houston, normally a no-man’s-land for a Democrat.

So perhaps Democratic wistfulness for those two states may not have been entirely misplaced, although that’s cold comfort when Trump carried Florida and North Carolina on his way to the White House.

And if the presidential results were grim, the U.S. Senate races were just as bad. Republicans  went eight-for-eight, with a race in Louisiana heading for a December 10 runoff in which Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy is favored to keep the seat in GOP hands.

Democrats didn’t even bother contesting Alabama, Oklahoma or South Carolina; they did recruit credible candidates in the rest of the races, such as Conner Eldridge in Arkansas, Jim Barksdale in Georgia and Jim Gray in Kentucky. But all lost by double-digit margins.

The Democrats’ best shots to pick up GOP-held seats were thought to be in Florida, where U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy was challenging Marco Rubio, and in North Carolina, where Deborah Ross was challenging Richard Burr. Murphy lost by 8 points; Ross, by 7. Both actually underperformed Clinton in their states.

The only good news for Democrats came in races for governor in West Virginia, where Jim Justice kept the office in Democratic hands, and in North Carolina, where Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper appears to have ousted Republican Governor Pat McCrory, although that race may be headed for a recount.

Southern polls begin closing over 3 hours starting at 6 p.m. ET

Eastern Kentucky is the first place to close; Louisiana and West Texas are the last

election-central-16(CFP) — Polls in the November 8 election will begin closing at 6 p.m. ET in the part of Kentucky in the Eastern time zone, then accelerate through the 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. hours and conclude with the last polls closing in Louisiana and Texas at 9 p.m.

At 7 p.m. ET, polls close in South Carolina and Virginia, as well as in the part of Kentucky in the Central time zone and the part of Florida in Eastern time zone (all but the Panhandle west of Tallahassee.) Polls also close in areas of Georgia outside of metro counties.

At 7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in North Carolina and West Virginia.

At 8 p.m. ET, the Florida Panhandle closes, as does voting in metro counties in Georgia. Polls also close in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee (both time zones) and all of Texas except the area around El Paso that is in the Mountain time zone.

At 8:30 p.m., polls close in Arkansas.

At 9 p.m., polls close in Louisiana and the part of Texas in the Mountain time zone.

The first indication of how voting is going will come in the early results from Eastern Kentucky. However, because news organizations do not project races until all of the polls in a state have closed, the first calls won’t come until at least 7 p.m., when the rest of Kentucky closes along with South Carolina and Virginia.

A call in the key battleground state of Florida won’t come until at least 8 p.m. ET, when polls in the Panhandle close. Likewise, Georgia won’t be called until after metro counties close at 8 p.m. ET or Texas until the El Paso-area polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

Here is a list of the poll closings, broken down by hour:

6 p.m. ET/5 p.m. CT/4 p.m. MT

  • Kentucky (part in ET)

7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT/5 p.m. MT

  • Florida (part in ET)
  • Georgia (non-metro counties)
  • Kentucky (part in CT)
  • South Carolina
  • Virginia

7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT/5:30 p.m. MT

  • North Carolina
  • West Virginia

8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT/6 p.m. MT

  • Alabama
  • Florida (part in CT)
  • Georgia (metro counties)
  • Mississippi
  • Oklahoma
  • Tennessee
  • Texas (part in CT)

8:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. CT/6:30 p.m. MT

  • Arkansas

9 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CT/7 p.m. MT

  • Louisiana
  • Texas (part in MT)
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