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Poll: Bush and Clinton in dead heat in Florida
New Quinnipiac poll finds Clinton leading other Republican contenders in Sunshine State
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitcs.com editor
MIAMI (CFP) — Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in a statistical dead heat in a hypothetical 2016 presidential match-up in the key swing state of Florida, a new poll finds.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
A Quinnipiac University poll of 936 registered voters in Florida found Clinton was the choice of 44 percent, compared to 43 percent for Bush — within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.
However, Clinton, a Democrat, fared much better in hypothetical match-ups with four other potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates, including Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.
The poll found Clinton led Rubio 49 percent to 39 percent among Florida voters, outside the margin of error.
Against three other Republican candidates, Clinton did even better, cracking 50 percent and holding double-digit leads over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Poll: Floridians want U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to seek re-election, not White House
A new Mason-Dixon poll finds the Sunshine State evenly divided on a Jeb Bush presidential bid
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (CFP) — A majority of Floridians want U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to seek a second term in 2016 rather than running for the Republican presidential nomination, a new poll finds.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio
A Mason-Dixon poll of 625 Florida registered voters found just 15 percent want Rubio to run for president, compared to 57 percent who want him to stay in the Senate and 28 percent undecided.
Among Republicans, the sentiment for Rubio to run for re-election was even higher, at 68 percent. Among Latinos, 30 percent want Rubio to run for president, compared to 56 percent who want him to stay in the Senate.
If elected in 2016, Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, would be the nation’s first Latino president.
Rubio, first elected to the Senate in 2010, has said he will give up his seat in 2016 if he decides to run for president, which would present Democrats with a pick-up opportunity.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
However, the poll found substantially more support for a White House bid by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, with 42 percent saying Bush should run for president and 43 percent saying he shouldn’t, with just 15 percent undecided.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Bush and Rubio are part of a group of nine Southerners — eight Republicans and one Democrat — considering a White House bid in 2016.
Among the potential Southern GOP candidates are former governors Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Rick Perry of Texas; U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas; and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already launched an exploratory committee for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination — a race that’s expected to be dominated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a former first lady of Arkansas.
Southern revolt against House Speaker John Boehner fails
Boehner defeats GOP U.S. Reps. Louie Gohmert and Ted Yoho in leadership vote
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
WASHINGTON (CFP) — U.S. House Speaker John Boehner has turned back a leadership challenge from two Southern congressman who assailed him for being insufficiently conservative and too willing to deal with Democrats.

House Speaker John Boehner
The House re-elected Boehner to a third term January 6, thwarting challenge from within his party by U.S. Reps. Louie Gohmert of Texas and Ted Yoho of Florida.
The final vote was 216 for Boehner, 164 for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, three for Gohmert and two for Yoho.
U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster of Florida — who launched a last minute campaign against Boehner just hours before the vote — received 12 votes, including his own, while other candidates received 16 votes.
The vote for the speakership is normally a routine affair, with Republican Boehner pitted against Democrat Pelosi on a party-line vote.
But because Boehner had to win a majority among House members present and voting, the conservative insurrection threatened to force the balloting into a second round — something that hadn’t happened in more than 90 years and would have been a a significant embarrassment for the speaker.
Still, the defection of 25 Republicans left Boehner two votes shy of the 218 needed to command an absolute majority of House members.
Boehner was helped by the fact that 27 House members didn’t vote, including a number of Democrats in New York attending the funeral of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo.
Gohmert, 61, is a six-term lawmaker who represents a district in East Texas. Yoho, 59, is beginning just his second term representing a district in north-central Florida. Both men announced their challenges to Boehner the weekend before the vote.
The challenge comes despite a 13-seat gain by Republicans in the 2014 midterm elections, giving the GOP its largest majority since 1928.
Southern Politics 2014: The Year In Review
2014 was a much better year for Republicans than for reality stars revamped as politicos
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
A congressman man caught kissing. Reality stars trying to remake themselves as politicians. A snowstorm that threatened to torpedo a sitting governor. A top U.S. House leader unceremoniously unseated in a primary. And a flap over a fan during a heated debate.
Those were just some of the strange and unlikely events in Southern politics in 2014, a year that ended with Republicans roaring through the region like Sherman in reverse. Here are some of the memorable moments:
Loose Lips Sink More Than Ships — Republican U.S. Rep. Vance McAllister, a married Christian conservative from northeast Louisiana, was caught on videotape passionately kissing a female staffer who was, ahem, not his wife. He refused to resign but decided not to run for re-election. Then, he changed his mind and ran again, with his wife’s vocal support. But his constituents were less forgiving than the missus, and he finished a distant fourth in the primary.
Snowmageddon — When a January snowstorm paralyzed metro Atlanta, Republican Governor Nathan Deal took the heat for a sluggish state response and his initial attempt to shift the blame elsewhere. But Democratic hopes that this snowy debacle might bury Deal had melted by November, when he was comfortably re-elected.
Taking Aim At Obamacare — Alabama Republican U.S. House candidate Will Brooke posted a YouTube video, entitled “Let’s Do Some Damage,” in which he fired bullets into a copy of the Obamacare bill. The gambit gained him a bit of attention, though, alas, not enough to win the primary in his Birmingham-area district.
Strange Bedfellows — Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani both waded into the Florida governor’s race this year, cutting ads for Democrat Charlie Crist and Republican Rick Scott, respectively. However, their shoes were on the other feet in 2006, when Crist was a Republican (before becoming an independent and then a Democrat.) Back then, it was Crist who enjoyed Giuliani’s support, while Clinton backed his Democratic opponent.
Overheated Debate — Speaking of the Florida governor’s race, a televised debate between Crist and Scott came to an abrupt halt when Crist insisted on putting a small fan at his feet under the podium, in apparent violation of the debate rules. Scott first refused to take the stage until the fan was removed, but he eventually relented — after seven awkward minutes of scrambling by the debate moderators. In the end, Scott won a narrow victory.
Real Mean Politics — Three reality TV stars — American Idol Clay Aiken, former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards and former South Carolina Treasurer Thomas Ravenel — all vied for political office this year. But political reality proved harsh, as all three lost badly. However, Aiken is turning his unsuccessful U.S. House campaign in North Carolina into — wait for it — a new reality show.
Biggest Upset — In an outcome that shocked the political world, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia lost his Richmond-area seat to Dave Brat, a little known college professor who ran at Cantor as a Tea Party insurgent. Weep not for Cantor, though. He bounced back with a job on Wall Street.
Worst Campaign — Texas State Senator Wendy Davis tried to parlay her filibuster against a bill restricting abortions in the Lone Star State into the governor’s mansion. But a series of gaffes — including questions about the veracity of her rags-to-riches story as a single trailer-park mom made good — sunk her chances, and she lost by a staggering 20 points.
Weirdest Campaign Appearance — Matt Bevin, who was challenging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a GOP primary in Kentucky, appeared at a rally hosted by a group that supports legalizing cockfighting. While insisting he didn’t condone cockfighting, Bevin didn’t help himself when he told a radio reporter that the Founder Fathers were “very actively involved” in the blood sport. Perhaps not surprisingly, McConnell won rather handily.
Best Don Quixote Impression — Mississippi State Senator Chris McDaniel — peeved that he was defeated in a GOP U.S. Senate runoff by crossover votes from Democrats and independents — launched a three-month court fight to overturn the result. Alas, his windmill tilting came to naught, and U.S. Senator Thad Cochran kept the seat.
Best Houdini Impression — Republican U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee faced voters for the first time since lurid details emerged from his bitter 2001 divorce during which he admitted a string of extra-marital affairs and — perhaps even more damaging for an avowed right-to-life lawmaker — encouraging his first wife to have two abortions. However, GOP voters in his district proved surprisingly forgiving, handing DesJarlais a narrow primary victory. He went on to win re-election in November.
If You Can’t Override, Indict — Texas Governor Rick Perry was indicted on charges of abuse of power and coercion over his veto of a funding bill for an Austin prosecutor who refused his demand that she resign after being arrested for driving with a blood alcohol level nearly three times the legal limit. A defiant Perry vowed to fight the charges, noting that in America, “we settle our political differences at the ballot box,” rather than in criminal court.
Double Dipper — Kentucky U.S. Senator Rand Paul announced he would run for re-election in 2016, even as he is also considering a White House bid. One pesky little problem, though: Kentucky law doesn’t allow somebody to be on the ballot for two offices at once. Paul’s supporters are trying to find a way to work around that technicality.
Democrat Dam Breaks in Upper South — While the general election was grim for Democrats across the South, the news was especially depressing in Arkansas and West Virginia, which had been places where the party of Jackson was still competitive. In Arkansas, Republicans took all seven statewide constitutional offices and every congressional seat for the first time since Reconstruction. In West Virginia, the GOP took all three U.S. House seats and captured control of the state legislature for the first time since 1931.
“D” Is The New Scarlet Letter — Three sitting Southern Democratic U.S. senators — Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana — all went down to defeat, paving the way for Republicans to take control of the Senate. Republicans also took away an open seat in West Virginia that they hadn’t won since 1942.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush officially exploring White House bid
Bush to establish leadership pack and begin traveling the country in January
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
MIAMI (CFP) — Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush will “actively explore” the possibility of seeking the White House in 2016 — the clearest indication yet that he will try to follow his father and brother into the Oval Office.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
In an announcement posted on his Facebook page December 16, Bush said he decided to explore a Republican presidential bid after talking about it with his family over Thanksgiving.
“As a result of these conversations and thoughtful consideration of the kind of strong leadership I think America needs, I have decided to actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States,” Bush said.
He also said he would establish a leadership PAC in January “that will help me facilitate conservations with citizens across America to discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation.”
Bush, 61, served as governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007. He is the son of former President George H.W. Bush and the brother of former President George W. Bush.
He had been mentioned as a possible GOP presidential contender in both 2008 and 2012 but opted out of both of those races.
Should he run, Bush will face what’s likely to be a crowded Republican field, with possibly five other Southerners in the mix.
Among the potential Southern GOP candidates are U.S. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Rick Perry of Texas.
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already launched an exploratory committee for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination — a race that’s expected to be dominated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a former first lady of Arkansas.
