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Republicans make gains in statehouses across the South
GOP takes control in West Virginia for the first time in 80 years, makes strong gains in Arkansas, Florida
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
ELECTION CENTRAL (CFP) — Republicans made gains in statehouses across the South in the November 4 midterm election, taking complete control in West Virginia and padding their numbers in Arkansas and Florida.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul
However, Democrats managed to keep their majority in the Kentucky House, which could doom plans by Republican U.S Senator Rand Paul to run for both the White House and his Senate seat in 2016.
Of the 21 legislative chambers up for election, the GOP picked up seats in 15, while five others saw no change. The only place Democrats made a gain was in North Carolina, where they added a net of three seats in the House. However, Democrats also lost three seats in the Senate.
The biggest shift came in West Virginia, where despite having a 350,000-person advantage over Republicans in voter registration, Democrats hemorrhaged seats.
In the House, the GOP gained a net 17 seats and now has a 64-36 advantage. In the Senate, Republicans gained seven seats to create a tie, then took control when a Democrat switched parties after the election.
Republicans have not controlled the Mountaineer State’s legislature since 1931.
In Arkansas, where the GOP had a slender one-vote majority in the House, Republicans gained a net of seven seats. They also added three Senate seats, giving them a two-thirds majority for the first time.
In Florida, where Governor Rick Scott narrowly won re-election, Republicans down the ballot did better, gaining a net of eight seats to capture an 82-37 majority over Democrats.
The GOP also picked up six House seats in Alabama, and in the Oklahoma Senate, Democrats lost four seats, leaving them with just eight senators in the 48-member chamber.
Republicans also made small gains in Texas, Tennessee and Georgia.
Kentucky law currently prohibits Paul from running for re-election to the Senate while also pursuing the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. With Democrats in charge of the House for the next two years, that law is not likely to be changed.
Paul has said he thinks that Kentucky law is unconstitutional.
Republican governors survive in Florida and Georgia
The GOP also takes away an open Democratic governorship in Arkansas
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
ELECTION CENTRAL (CFP) — The Republican firewall held at the gubernatorial level across the South in the November 4 midterm election, with the GOP keeping endangered seats in Florida and Georgia and taking away a Democrat-held seat in Arkansas.
Republicans will now hold 11 of the 14 governorships in Southern states.
Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist
In Florida, Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat Charlie Crist lost his bid to resurrect his political career in a battle with Republican Governor Rick Scott. Scott won narrowly in the Sunshine State, 48 percent to 47 percent
Meanwhile, up in Georgia, Republican Governor Nathan Deal easily fended off a challenge from State Senator Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. Deal took 53 percent, to 45 percent for Carter.
Former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson
In Arkansas, where Democratic Governor Mike Beebe was term-limited, former GOP U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson – making his fourth try for statewide office – defeated former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Ross by a margin of 56 percent to 42 percent.
In Texas, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott crushed Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis, who garnered national attention last year after filibustering a bill restricting abortion.
Abbott took 59 percent of the vote, to 29 percent for Davis. Republican candidates have now won the last six gubernatorial elections in the Lone Star State.
Elsewhere in the South, Republican incumbents won easy victories victories in Alabama, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Conservative Southern U.S. House members go down
Republicans make a net gain of four seats across the region
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
ELECTION CENTRAL (CFP) — Four embattled Democratic incumbents who represent conservative U.S. House districts lost their seats in the November 4 midterm election, while the GOP lost a seat in the Florida Panhandle.
The four Democrats — Nick Rahall in West Virginia, John Barrow in Georgia, Joe Garcia in Florida and Pete Gallego in Texas — all represented districts that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. The GOP also took an open Democrat-held seat in North Carolina where Romney also won.
With those wins, the GOP will hold a 112-39 advantage in Southern U.S. House seats come January.
U.S. House nominee Gwen Graham
The Democrats’ only good news came in Florida’s Tallahassee-centered 2nd District, where Gwen Graham, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Bob Graham, narrowly defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Southerland by a margin of 50 percent to 49 percent.
Democrats had also targeted five open seats in Arkansas, Virginia and West Virginia. Republicans held all five.
Barrow, who represents Georgia’s 12th District, had survived four previous attempts by Republicans to push him from Congress, which included having his district gerrymandered twice by the state legislature. But the fifth time proved the charm as he lost to Republican Rick Allen by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent.
U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall
Despite 19 terms representing West Virginia in Congress, Rahall could not overcome President Obama’s marked unpopularity in the Mountaineer State, losing to State Senator Evan Jenkins in the 3rd District, by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. .
In Florida’s 26th District, Garcia lost to Republican Carlos Curbelo by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. This Latino-majority district, which stretches from southwest Miami-Dade County to Key West, has now switched hands in the three straight elections.
The GOP also won in Texas’s 23rd District, a vast district that sprawls across more than 500 miles of southwest Texas, from the suburbs of San Antonio to the suburbs of El Paso.
Will Hurd, a former CIA agent who, uniquely, was a black candidate running in a majority Latino district, defeated Gallego by a margin of 50 percent to 48 percent. This closely divided district has now switched hands three times since 2006.
Republicans also picked up a seat in North Carolina’s 7th District, which opened up when Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre decided to retire. Former State Senator David Rouzer easily defeated New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield.
Ten things to watch for in Tuesday’s election
U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governorships are on the ballot all across the South
By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
(CFP) — As voters go to the polls on Tuesday, here are 10 things to watch for in races across the South:
Will There Be A Peach State Runoff? — Georgia has a unique election law providing for a general election runoff if neither candidate gets an outright majority — a distinct possibility in a close race with a third-party candidate. Polls show that both the U.S. Senate race between Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn and the governor’s race between incumbent GOP Governor Nathan Deal and Democratic State Senator Jason Carter could be razor close. If that happens, a runoff in the governor’s race would be December 9, but the Senate race would not be settled until January 6.
U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu
Is Battle For Senate Control Headed To The Bayou? — Regardless what happens in Georgia, the in Louisiana between incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and her GOP opponent, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, is certain to head to a runoff. If Republicans need the Louisiana seat to gain control of the Senate, the Pelican State could become the focus of the American political world until the December 6 runoff.
How Much Of A Drag Is Obama? — The president’s approval ratings are anemic across the South, and none of the major Democratic candidates have brought him into the region to campaign. Linking each and every Democrat to Obama (and Obamacare) has been part and parcel of just about every Republican campaign. Tuesday will determine whether Obama’s unpopularity was a millstone that drowned Democratic prospects.
Will Florida Voters Resurrect Crist? — Charlie Crist’s political career looked to be all but over after a disastrous run for the U.S. Senate four years ago. But now he’s back — this time as a Democrat — and, if the polls are to be believed, within striking distance of the governor’s mansion once again. If Crist pulls it off, it will be a remarkable feat of political redemption.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott
How Big Will Abbott Win? — There’s no question that Republican Greg Abbott will win the governor’s race in Texas over Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis, who ran a remarkably inept campaign. The only question is how badly Davis goes down. Democrats talked a good game earlier this year about turning Texas blue. Tuesday’s results could show how distant that dream really is.
Fallin And Haley On National Stage? — Both Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are cruising to easy re-election wins, which could catapult them into the national conversation for 2016. Historically, being a governor has been the best way to become president, and perhaps one reason we haven’t had a female president is that no female governor has ever sought the White House. Tuesday’s results could start those kinds of conversations in Columbia and Oklahoma City.
Are Nunn And Graham Their Father’s Political Daughters? — Both Nunn, running for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, and Gwen Graham, who is seeking a U.S. House seat in Florida, are scions of prominent Democratic political families making their political debuts. Both have run strong campaigns in areas that lean Republican. So Tuesday could be a night of political deja vu.
How Many Southern Senate Seats Can Democrats Keep? — Right now, the Democrats have only eight out of 28 seats. They seem certain to lose one of those, in West Virginia, and three others — Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — are in jeopardy. So the party of Jackson that once strode strong across the South could be reduced to having less than 15 percent of region’s Senate seats.
Has Georgia Turned Purple? — If Democrats pull off wins in the U.S. Senate and governor’s races in Georgia, they will no doubt crow about changing political winds in the Peach State. Tuesday’s results will show if Georgia, like Virginia before it, is becoming less reliably Republican, which would no doubt encourage Democrats to try to put the state into play in 2016.
Can Rahall Survive in West Virginia? — When Democratic U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall was first elected to Congress, bellbottoms were still the rage. But after 38 years in Washington, he is fighting for his political life in a state where opposition to the Obama administration’s environmental policies is dragging down the Democratic brand. If Rahall goes, the state’s entire House delegation will be in GOP hands, a sea change in a state that a generation ago leaned Democratic.
Clinton and Giuliani appear in ads for Florida candidates they once opposed
Clinton calls Democrat Charlie Crist “the people’s governor,” as Giuliani slams Crist in an ad for Republican Rick Scott
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com
MIAMI (CFP) — Just eight years after working to defeat Charlie Crist in the 2006 Florida governor’s race, former President Bill Clinton has cut a new television ad touting Crist as “the people’s governor.”
In the ad, which began airing statewide October 28, Clinton tells voters the Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat “really cares about making your life better.”
“I hope you’ll stand with Charlie. He needs your vote.”
Not to be outdone in the surrogate wars, the campaign of Crist’s opponent, Republican Governor Rick Scott, began airing a clip of a recent speech by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in which he slams the party-switching Crist.
“I’ve never met a person in politics that I disrespect more than Charlie Crist,” Giuliani said.
When Crist ran for governor in 2006 as a Republican, Clinton came to the Sunshine State to campaign for his opponent, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, while Giuliani campaigned for Crist.
In 2010, after Crist decided to forsake Tallahassee and run for the U.S. Senate as an independent, Giuliani supported one of Scott’s opponents, former Attorney General Bill McCollum, in the GOP primary.
With less than a week to go before the election, polls show the race between Scott and Crist is too close to call.
Watch the ads featuring Clinton and Giuliani:
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