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Ten things to watch for in Tuesday’s election

U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governorships are on the ballot all across the South

By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

(CFP) — As voters go to the polls on Tuesday, here are 10 things to watch for in races across the South:

Wsouthern states smill There Be A Peach State Runoff? — Georgia has a unique election law providing for a general election runoff if neither candidate gets an outright majority — a distinct possibility in a close race with a third-party candidate. Polls show that both the U.S. Senate race between Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn and the governor’s race between incumbent GOP Governor Nathan Deal and Democratic State Senator Jason Carter could be razor close. If that happens, a runoff in the governor’s race would be December 9, but the Senate race would not be settled until January 6.

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu

Is Battle For Senate Control Headed To The Bayou? — Regardless what happens in Georgia, the in Louisiana between incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and her GOP opponent, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, is certain to head to a runoff. If Republicans need the Louisiana seat to gain control of the Senate, the Pelican State could become the focus of the American political world until the December 6 runoff.

How Much Of A Drag Is Obama? — The president’s approval ratings are anemic across the South, and none of the major Democratic candidates have brought him into the region to campaign. Linking each and every Democrat to Obama (and Obamacare) has been part and parcel of just about every Republican campaign. Tuesday will determine whether Obama’s unpopularity was a millstone that drowned Democratic prospects.

Will Florida Voters Resurrect Crist?Charlie Crist’s political career looked to be all but over after a disastrous run for the U.S. Senate four years ago. But now he’s back — this time as a Democrat — and, if the polls are to be believed, within striking distance of the governor’s mansion once again. If Crist pulls it off, it will be a remarkable feat of political redemption.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

How Big Will Abbott Win? — There’s no question that Republican Greg Abbott will win the governor’s race in Texas over Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis, who ran a remarkably inept campaign. The only question is how badly Davis goes down. Democrats talked a good game earlier this year about turning Texas blue. Tuesday’s results could show how distant that dream really is.

Fallin And Haley On National Stage? — Both Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are cruising to easy re-election wins, which could catapult them into the national conversation for 2016. Historically, being a governor has been the best way to become president, and perhaps one reason we haven’t had a female president is that no female governor has ever sought the White House. Tuesday’s results could start those kinds of conversations in Columbia and Oklahoma City.

Are Nunn And Graham Their Father’s Political Daughters? — Both Nunn, running for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, and Gwen Graham, who is seeking a U.S. House seat in Florida, are scions of prominent Democratic political families making their political debuts. Both have run strong campaigns in areas that lean Republican. So Tuesday could be a night of political deja vu.

How Many Southern Senate Seats Can Democrats Keep? — Right now, the Democrats have only eight out of 28 seats. They seem certain to lose one of those, in West Virginia, and three others — Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — are in jeopardy. So the party of Jackson that once strode strong across the South could be reduced to having less than 15 percent of region’s Senate seats.

Has Georgia Turned Purple? — If Democrats pull off wins in the U.S. Senate and governor’s races in Georgia, they will no doubt crow about changing political winds in the Peach State. Tuesday’s results will show if Georgia, like Virginia before it, is becoming less reliably Republican, which would no doubt encourage Democrats to try to put the state into play in 2016.

Can Rahall Survive in West Virginia? — When Democratic U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall was first elected to Congress, bellbottoms were still the rage. But after 38 years in Washington, he is fighting for his political life in a state where opposition to the Obama administration’s environmental policies is dragging down the Democratic brand. If Rahall goes, the state’s entire House delegation will be in GOP hands, a sea change in a state that a generation ago leaned Democratic.

Democrat Wendy Davis under fire for controversial ad in Texas governor’s race

Ad notes that her opponent, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott, uses a wheelchair

texas mugFORT WORTH, Texas (CFP) — Texas State Senator Wendy Davis is defending a controversial new television ad noting that her Republican opponent in the governor’s race, Attorney General Greg Abbott, uses a wheelchair and accusing him of being unsympathetic to other accident victims.

State Senator Wendy Davis

State Senator Wendy Davis

Abbott was paralyzed after a 1984 accident in which a tree fell on him while jogging. He received a reported $10 million settlement.

During a campaign appearance in Fort Worth on October 13, Davis, the Democratic nominee for Texas’s top job, insisted that the ad points out Abbott’s “hypocrisy” in opposing efforts by other accident victims to seek redress in the courts, as he did.

“Greg Abbot has built a career kicking the ladder down behind him and denying to others the very same justice that he both deserved,” Davis said.

The Abbott campaign has dismissed Davis’s ad as “disgusting.”

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

“Senator Davis’s decision to double down on her severe error in judgment is shameful and shows that she is unfit to be governor,” the campaign said in a statement.

Davis, who trails Abbott by double digits in most polls, has faced an avalanche of media criticism — from both the left and the right — since the ad began airing October 10.

The ad begins, “A tree fell on Greg Abbott, who sued and got millions. Since then, he’s spent his career working against other victims.”

The ad goes to criticize Abbott for arguing in court that an amputee wasn’t disabled because she had an artificial limb and for opposing a suit by a rape victim against a company that failed to do a background check on a sex offender.

The ad ends, “Greg Abbott. He’s not for us.”

Abbott has talked about his disability during the course of his campaign and even ran an ad showing voters how he rehabilitated himself by wheeling his chair up and down a parking garage.

View the Davis ad:

Defiant Texas Governor Rick Perry vows to fight indictment

Perry insists he was standing up for the rule of law when he vetoed funding for a local prosecutor jailed for drunken driving

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

texas mugAUSTIN, Texas (CFP) — With a defiant and determined tone, Republican Texas Governor Rick Perry is vowing to fight his indictment on two felony charges stemming from his veto of a funding bill for an Austin prosecutor who refused his demand that she resign after being arrested for drunken driving.

Texas Governor Rick Perry

Texas Governor Rick Perry

“I stood up for the rule of law in the state of Texas, and if I had to do it again, I would make the exact same decision,” Perry said in an interview with Fox News Sunday on August 17. “This is not the way that we settle … political differences in this country. You don’t do it with indictments. We settle our political differences at the ballot box.”

A grand jury in Travis County, which includes Austin, indicted Perry on felony charges of abuse of power and coercion stemming from his veto of $7.5 million in funding for a public integrity unit in the office of Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg. If convicted, he could face prison time.

In April 2013, Lehmberg, a Democrat, was arrested for driving with a blood alcohol level nearly three times the legal limit, and video showed her being combative with the arresting officers. She pleaded guilty and served 20 days in jail.

Perry demanded the Lehmberg resign and threatened to veto funding for the public integrity unit — which investigates elected officials across Texas — if she refused to go. When Lehmberg refused to resign, Perry vetoed the funding.

“I had lost confidence in her. The public had lost confidence in her. And I did what every governor has done for decades, which is make a decision on whether or not it was in the proper use of state money to go to that agency,” Perry told Fox News Sunday.

Many Republicans in Texas, including Perry, have long been critical of the public integrity unit, saying it empowers Democratic prosecutors elected in Democrat-leaning Travis County to launch politically motivated investigations of Republicans.

A Republican judge appointed a special prosecutor, San Antonio attorney Mike McCrum, to investigate the circumstances of Perry’s veto after a complaint was filed by a liberal advocacy group.

Early in the Obama administration, McCrum had been considered for an appointment as a federal prosecutor, with the backing of Texas’s two GOP senators. But he withdrew his name in 2010 after the appointment stalled in the Senate.

Perry, the longest-serving governor in Texas history, is not running for re-election this year. But he is considering making a bid for the White House in 2016, after making an unsuccessful presidential run in 2012.

Veteran U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall loses GOP primary runoff

Hall, the oldest person ever to serve in the House, is narrowly defeated by John Radcliffe in his bid for an 18th term

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

texas mugTEXARKANA, Texas (CFP) — After 34 years in Congress, U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall has been unceremoniously rejected by his own Republican voters in Texas’ 4th District, ending his quest for an 18th term.

Hall, 91, narrowly lost to John Radcliffe, 48, a former federal prosecutor, in the May 27 runoff. Radcliffe took 53 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for Hall.

U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall

U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall

Hall, first elected in 1980, is the dean of the Texas House delegation and one of only two World War II veterans left in Congress. At 91, he is the oldest person to ever serve in the House.

The 4th District sprawls across northeast Texas from the Dallas exurbs north to Oklahoma and east to Arkansas. The district is heavily Republican, making Radcliffe the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

While not directly making Hall’s age an issue in the race, Radcliffe criticized him for being part of the Washington establishment and billed himself as “a new generation of conservative leadership.”

Hall, a former committee chairman in the House, emphasized his experience and seniority. He had the backing of nearly all of the state’s congressional delegation, including Tea Party favorite Senator Ted Cruz.

Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst crushed in GOP primary runoff

State Senator Dan Patrick ends Dewhurst’s bid for a fourth term

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

HOUSTON (CFP) — Two years after losing a U.S. Senate primary to Tea Party insurgent Ted Cruz, Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst has lost his bid for a fourth term to another Tea Party-backed candidate.

Texas State Senator Dan Patrick

Texas State Senator Dan Patrick

State Senator Dan Patrick of Cypress took 65 percent in the May 27 Republican runoff. Dewhurst trailed with just 35 percent.

Patrick will now face Democratic State Senator Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio in November’s general election.

Patrick, 64, a conservative radio talk show host who represents a Houston-area district in the Texas Senate, had finished well ahead of Dewhurst in the first round of voting back in March. But Dewhurst poured $5 million from his own personal fortune into the runoff campaign to try to make up the difference.

Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst

Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst

Dewhurst, 68, from Houston, was first elected lieutenant governor in 2002, after serving a term as state land commissioner. In 2012, he was the prohibitive favorite in the U.S. Senate primary, with the backing of Governor Rick Perry and the GOP establishment. Then, Cruz came out of nowhere to beat him in a runoff.

Patrick criticized Dewhurst for being part of the Austin establishment and also hit him for supporting in-state college tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. Dewhurst’s campaign went personal, making Patrick’s 1987 bankruptcy and his legal name change issues in the race.

Dewhurst claimed Patrick changed his name to avoid his debts. But Patrick insisted that he changed his given last name — Goeb — to Patrick because he had already been using the new name in his work as a media personality.