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Four southern U.S. Senate races are still too close to call

GOP holding leads in Arkansas and West Virginia; Democrats holding tough in Georgia and Kentucky

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

southern-states-lgWASHINGTON (CFP) — Two weeks out from election day, races for four southern U.S. Senate seats — two held by each party — are still too close to call, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance.

The latest polling shows races in North Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia are within the margin of error, while the race in Louisiana now seems certain to be heading toward a December runoff.

Depending on how these Southern races turn out, the question of which party will control the Senate could linger for more than a month before runoffs in Louisiana and possibly Georgia.

U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton

U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton

However, Republicans appear poised to pick up an open Democratic seat in West Virginia, and GOP U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton appears to have opened up a small lead over incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor in Arkansas.

Democrats hold only eight out of 28 southern Senate seats. One of those seats, in West Virginia, is likely gone, and three others — in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — are in jeopardy.

The good news for Democrats is that two GOP-held seats, in Kentucky and Georgia, have turned out to be surprisingly competitive, despite the Republican tilt in both of those states.

Here are the current states of the southern Senate races:

Arkansas: The race between Cotton and Pryor has been neck-and-neck for the better part of a year, as outside groups poured tons of money into the Natural
State. But a Talk Business and Politics/Hendrix College poll released October 15 showed that Cotton has opened up an 8-point lead, the third media poll in a row that put the challenger ahead.

Louisiana: Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and her chief Republican rival, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, about even but both far from the 50 percent either would need to avoid a runoff in the state’s jungle primary, where all candidates from all parties run in the same race. That would set up a December 6 runoff between the two, a head-to-head match-up that’s still too close to call.

West Virginia: This race is to pick a successor to retiring Democratic U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller, and it looks increasingly like a GOP pickup, with U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito opening up a significant lead over Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. A CBS News/New York Times/YouGov poll in early October had Capito ahead by 23 points.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Kentucky: The Senate’s top Republican, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is in a pitched battle with Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Recent polls have shown the race as either too close to call or with McConnell slightly in the lead.

Georgia: This race, to pick a successor to retiring Republican U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss, is a contest between two political newcomers, Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn. Despite Georgia’ GOP tilt, Nunn has run a strong race, and the latest polling shows the contest within the margin of error. An interesting twist in Georgia is that if neither Perdue nor Nunn wins a majority, they would meet in a runoff December 10 — a possibility if the race is close and votes are syphoned off by third-party candidates.

North Carolina: Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan is seeking a second term against Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis. Recent polling has shown this race is also within the margin of error.

Debate between Crist and Scott in Florida starts off with nasty spat over a fan

Republican Gov. Rick Scott refuses to take the stage because of a fan placed under Crist’s podium

florida mugDAVIE, Florida (CFP) — A gubernatorial debate in Florida took a bizarre turn, when Republican Gov. Rick Scott initially refused to take the stage after a fan was placed under the podium of Democrat Charlie Crist, in apparent violation of the rules of the October 15 debate.

Florida Governor Rick Scott

Florida Governor Rick Scott

Scott eventually relented and took the stage at Broward College, but not before Crist got into a contretemps with the debate moderator, Elliott Rodriguez, over whether the fan violated the rules.

“Are we really going to debate about a fan?” Crist said.

Asked later in the debate why he wanted to use a fan despite the rules, Crist said, “Why not?”

“Is there anything wrong with being comfortable? I don’t think there is.”

During the debate, Scott continued a line of attack that he has made throughout the campaign that during Crist’s tenure as governor between 2007 and 2011 — when Crist was a Republican — the state lost 832,000 jobs. Scott charged that Crist was so consumed by his ambition for higher office that he didn’t do enough to promote economic development.

“He didn’t want to do the job. He wanted to be vice president and then ran against Marco Rubio for the Senate,” Scott said. “Charlie is a lot of talk. But he’s not a lot of action.”

Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist

Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist

But Crist responded that he could not be held responsible for jobs lost during the Great Recession.

“The people of Florida know that I didn’t cause the global economic meltdown,” he said. “They are smarter than that.”

Crist also hit Scott for not pushing through the private option expansion of Medicaid that was part of Obamacare in Florida.

“People are hurting, and they are suffering,” he said, adding that “I don’t know why” Scott hasn’t pushed for Medicaid expansion.

But Scott responded that Crist was actually governor when Obamacare was passed.

“Did he go to the legislature to pass this because it’s a great idea? No,” Scott said, adding that “Obamacare is a bad law.”

To a chorus of boos from the audience, Crist also raised a line of attack that he has made throughout the campaign over fraud charges lodged against Scott’s former company, HCA, in 1997.

“The truth hurts sometimes,” Crist said. “You pled the Fifth 75 times.”

Scott was never charged in connection with the HCA fraud, although the company paid a $600 million fine. The same issue was unsuccessfully raised against Scott in 2010 when he was first elected governor.

Scott was also pressed on whether he thought Florida’s constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, passed by voters in 2008, was discriminatory.

“While I believe in traditional marriage, we have to understand people have different views,” Scott said, noting that the ban is currently being challenged in court.

Pressed further if he thought the ban was discriminatory, Scott said only, “I don’t believe in discrimination.”

Crist came back swinging, saying he supported same-sex marriage, even though in 2008, when he was a Republican governor, he supported that amendment. Scott then pounced on Crist’s inconsistency.

“We don’t know what Charlie believes on this issue because he’s taken every side on this issue,” Scott said.

Polls have shown the race for governor in the Sunshine State is too close to call.

Crist was elected governor as a conservative Republican in 2006. In 2010, he gave up the governorship to pursue a U.S. Senate seat, first as a Republican and then as an independent. He became a Democrat in 2012.

Democrat Wendy Davis under fire for controversial ad in Texas governor’s race

Ad notes that her opponent, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott, uses a wheelchair

texas mugFORT WORTH, Texas (CFP) — Texas State Senator Wendy Davis is defending a controversial new television ad noting that her Republican opponent in the governor’s race, Attorney General Greg Abbott, uses a wheelchair and accusing him of being unsympathetic to other accident victims.

State Senator Wendy Davis

State Senator Wendy Davis

Abbott was paralyzed after a 1984 accident in which a tree fell on him while jogging. He received a reported $10 million settlement.

During a campaign appearance in Fort Worth on October 13, Davis, the Democratic nominee for Texas’s top job, insisted that the ad points out Abbott’s “hypocrisy” in opposing efforts by other accident victims to seek redress in the courts, as he did.

“Greg Abbot has built a career kicking the ladder down behind him and denying to others the very same justice that he both deserved,” Davis said.

The Abbott campaign has dismissed Davis’s ad as “disgusting.”

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

“Senator Davis’s decision to double down on her severe error in judgment is shameful and shows that she is unfit to be governor,” the campaign said in a statement.

Davis, who trails Abbott by double digits in most polls, has faced an avalanche of media criticism — from both the left and the right — since the ad began airing October 10.

The ad begins, “A tree fell on Greg Abbott, who sued and got millions. Since then, he’s spent his career working against other victims.”

The ad goes to criticize Abbott for arguing in court that an amputee wasn’t disabled because she had an artificial limb and for opposing a suit by a rape victim against a company that failed to do a background check on a sex offender.

The ad ends, “Greg Abbott. He’s not for us.”

Abbott has talked about his disability during the course of his campaign and even ran an ad showing voters how he rehabilitated himself by wheeling his chair up and down a parking garage.

View the Davis ad:

Poll: Louisiana U.S. Senate race heading for a runoff

Control of the Senate could be in limbo until December if a runoff is needed to settle the race

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

louisiana mugNEW ORLEANS (CFP) — The U.S. Senate race in Louisiana appears headed for a runoff that’s still to close to call, which could leave the balance of power in the Senate up in the air until December, according to a new poll.

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu

The CNN/ORC International poll released September 28 shows incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu at 43 percent among likely voters, ahead of GOP U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy at 40 percent and Rob Maness, a Republican with Tea Party backing, at 9 percent.

In Louisiana, all candidates, regardless of party, run in the November “jungle” primary. If no one reaches a majority, the top two vote getters meet in a runoff December 6.

With a  margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, the poll indicates that a runoff between Landrieu and Cassidy is likely.

U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy

U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy

In a hypothetical match up in the runoff, Cassidy was the choice of 50 percent to 47 percent for Landrieu, which was within the poll’s margin of error. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, Landrieu led Cassidy 51 percent to 45 percent — an indication that increasing voter turnout may be key to Landrieu’s survival.

The Louisiana race is one of eight contested Senate races across the South that are likely to decide which party controls the Senate.

A runoff would be nothing new for Landrieu. She faced a runoffs in 1996 and 2002 and survived both times.

The poll also found that just 37 percent of likely voters in Louisiana approved of President Obama’s job performance, compared to 61 percent who disapproved.

Wife of “Kissing Congressman” cuts testimonial campaign ad

Kelly McAllister says her husband, U.S. Rep. Vance McAllister, “owns up to his mistakes”

louisiana mugMONROE, Louisiana (CFP) — The wife of embattled U.S. Rep. Vance McAllister is appearing in a new television as the Louisiana Republican battles to keep his seat after an embarrassing video surfaced last April showing him kissing a female staffer.

U.S. Rep. Vance McAllister

U.S. Rep. Vance McAllister

“A man’s character is based on how many times he gets back up and stands again,” Kelly McAllister says in the ad. “I’m blessed to have a husband who owns up to his mistakes, never gives up, always fighting for the good people of Louisiana.”

McAllister himself opens the video, saying that “life is filled with ups and downs.”

McAllister, 40, a Christian conservative and father of five, was elected to the 5th District seat in a special election last November in his first bid for political office. After the video surfaced, he announced he would not seek re-election, but he later changed his mind and filed to run again.

To go back to Washington, he will have to defeat five Republicans and a Democrat who have filed to run against him, including Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, the Democrat, and former Republican U.S. Rep. Clyde Holloway, a member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission.

The crowded field could help McAllister because of Louisiana’s unique jungle primary system. All seven candidates run in the same race in November, with the top two vote-getters facing each other in a runoff in December if nobody wins a majority.

Both Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Roger Villere, chairman of the Louisiana Republican Party, called on McAllister to resign after the video surfaced, but he refused.

Click here to watch the commercial.