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West Virginia stubborn, or playing hard to get
U.S. Senator Joe Manchin pisses off his party yet again … to what end?
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
Also in this report:
- Atlanta DA Fani Willis may beat Justice Department to the courthouse door
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis shows Donald Trump the money
Blue in name only? Senator No strikes again
Another co-dependent, dysfunctional chapter has been written in the fraught relationship between West Virginia U.S. Senator Joe Manchin and the Democratic Party to which he claims to belong.
This time around, Manchin KO’ed the Biden Administration’s plan to pour billions into climate change mitigation, after weeks of semi-quiet negotiations with Chuck Schumer to reach a deal. The reason? Manchin says he doesn’t want to aggravate the worst inflation in 40 years with more federal spending.
His fellow Democrats erupted, with a lot of chatter about obstructionism in the face of existential threats. New Mexico’s Martin Heinrich questioned why Manchin is still being allowed to helm the Senate Energy Committee. (Answer: Because pushing him out is the best way to turn him into a Republican.) Bernie Sanders thundered that Manchin was “intentionally sabotaging” President Biden’s agenda, even though Manchin’s behavior seems more capricious than intentional.
Manchin has yet again teased fellow Democrats with flirtatious negotiations, before yanking the rose out of their hands. To what end, it’s hard to see, given that he’d be better off politically in his home state by not negotiating in the first place. Then again, it has made him the center of attention, which should never be underestimated as a motivating factor in the halls of Congress.
Those disposed to ascribe the worst of motives to Manchin will no doubt be encouraged by a Politico report detailing how he has been the top recipient of campaign cash from the energy industry – and then providing five paragraphs of names of a veritable who’s who of energy executives, energy lobbyists and other business bigwigs who have opened up their checkbooks to him in the last quarter as he hemmed and hawed on climate spending.
♦Atlanta’s chief prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, is rolling right along in her investigation of efforts by Donald Trump and his allies to overturn his 2020 election loss in the Peach State, firing off grand jury subpoenas to state officials and at least two members of Congress, South Carolina U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham and Georgia U.S. Rep. Jody Hice.
Graham and Hice are fighting the subpoenas; Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are cooperating. Perhaps more ominous for Trumpworld was a scoop from Yahoo News that Willis has sent target letters to three top state Republicans – David Shafer, chair of the Georgia Republican Party and State Senators State Senators Burt Jones and Brandon Beach – indicating that they could be indicted; she’s also considering subpoenaing Trump himself.
With the Justice Department in Washington moving at a glacial pace in its investigation of the January 6 coup attempt, Willis could very well beat them to the courthouse door, throwing an enormous monkey wrench into Republican campaigns in statewide races, particularly that of Jones, the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor. But Kemp, too, is likely to face pressure from the MAGA faithful to use his pardon power to thwart Willis if she takes the plunge.
♦Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has to date been non-committal (Coy? Playing Hamlet?) about whether he plans to run for president in 2024 if Trump also runs. But a new bit of fundraising news from the Washington Post indicates some support for that prospect among donors.
Trump’s fundraising operation raised $36 million in the first half of 2022, the first time he has raised less than $50 million in a six-month period since leaving the White House. DeSantis, on the other hand, raised $45 million from January to June, besting Trump by $9 million.
Granted, DeSantis is in the middle of an active re-election campaign, and Trump is not. But these figures are an indication that DeSantis will be a formidable obstacle to Trump 2.0 if he decides to run.
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2 Mississippi Republican U.S. House members forced into runoffs after weak primary showings
Michael Guest narrowly trails challenger in 3rd District; Steven Palazzo clears just 32% in 4th District
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
JACKSON, Mississippi (CFP) – Two sitting Republican Mississippi U.S. House members have been forced into primary runoffs after weak primary performances and will now have to battle to keep their seats on June 28.
U.S. Reps. Michael Guest and Steven Palazzo, R-Mississippi
In the 3rd District, U.S. Rep. Michael Guest — one of just 35 Republican House members to vote in favor of an independent bipartisan investigation of the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol – trails Michael Cassidy, a Navy aviator making his first run for political office.
Cassidy’s margin over Guest was less than 600 votes, with neither winning the majority needed to avoid a runoff due to a third candidate in the race.
In the 4th District, U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo — under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations that he misused campaign funds and used his office to aid family members – drew an anemic 32% in his re-election bid against a field of six challengers.
He will face a runoff with Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell, who came in second about 1,500 votes ahead of Clay Wagner, a banker from Bay St. Louis.
The state’s other two U.S. House members, Republican Trent Kelley is the 1st District and Democrat Bennie Thompson in the 2nd District, easily turned back primary challenges.
Guest’s campaign faced headwinds over his over his vote on the January 6th independent commission, even though he later voted against the current House investigation led by Democrats.
Cassidy billed himself as the “America First” candidate, echoing Donald Trump’s unfounded claims of voting fraud in the 2020 election. However, Trump did not endorse in the race; he had endorsed Guest in 2020.
The 3rd District stretches across central Mississippi from the Jackson suburbs to Meridian.
Palazzo’s opponents in the 4th District hammered him over a long-running ethics investigation and what they see as his inattention to the district, which has garnered him the nickname “No-Show Palazzo.”
He ran a low-profile campaign, skipping candidate forums with his opponents. But he did have Trump’s endorsement.
Ezell, who touted his 40-year law enforcement career on the campaign trail, has served as sheriff in Jackson County on the Gulf Coast since 2014 and was re-elected without opposition in 2019.
The 4th District includes the state’s southeast panhandle, including the cities of Biloxi, Gulfport, Pascagoula and Hattiesburg.
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Mississippi Republican U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo facing Tuesday primary fight amid ethics investigation
6 opponents hitting “No-Show Palazzo” over inattention to district, ethics problems
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
GULFPORT (CFP) — Mississippi U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo — under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations that he misused campaign funds and used his office to aid family members — will try to fight off a gaggle of challengers in Tuesday’s Republican primary.
U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo, R-Mississippi
Palazzo’s race, in the 4th District — which includes the state’s southeast panhandle, including the Gulf Coast and Hattiesburg – is the only House race that is expected to have a competitive primary, although all four of the state’s House members are facing primary challengers.
There is no U.S. Senate race this year, and statewide officials aren’t up until 2023.
Polls in the Magnolia State are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Palazzo, running for his seventh term, is facing a field of Republican challengers that includes Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell; State Senator Brice Wiggins from Pascagoula; Clay Wagner, a banker from Bay St. Louis; and Carl Boyanton, a retried businessman from Diamondhead who challenged Palazzo in 2020.
If Palazzo doesn’t win a majority Tuesday, the top vote getter among his challengers will face him in a June 28 runoff.
Palazzo’s opponents are hammering him over a long-running ethics investigation and what they see as his inattention to the district, which has garnered him the nickname “No-Show Palazzo.”
Palazzo has run a low-profile campaign, skipping candidate forums with his opponents. He does have a significant trump card – the endorsement of Donald Trump himself.
A report from the Office of Congressional Ethics found that Palazzo had used campaign funds to pay himself and his now ex-wife $200,000, including the mortgage on a family home; used his office to help his brother; and used congressional staffers for errands and campaign work, which are not allowed under House rules.
The OCE turned the matter over to the House Ethics Committee, which has yet to resolve the case; Palazzo has denied any wrongdoing and claims the charges are politically motivated.
Mississippi Today also reported that Palazzo had used campaign funds to pay for meals at high-end restaurants, sporting events, golfing and gifts, which would also be a violation of House rules.
His campaign later said some of those expenditures were mistakenly paid for by the campaign and Palazzo had reimbursed at least some of the money.
The latest campaign disclosure reports show Palazzo’s challengers have collectively raised $1.5 million for their campaigns, with both Boyanton and Wagner making six-figure loans to stay competitive in the fundraising chase. Palazzo has raised $600,000.
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Tuesday’s Southern primaries will test Donald Trump’s continuing grip on Republican Party
Trump’s effort to get rid of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp likely to go up in flames, but Sarah Huckabee Sanders takes step toward Arkansas governor’s mansion
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
(CFP) — Donald Trump’s continuing grip on the Republican Party will be front and center in Tuesday’s Southern primaries, as GOP voters in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and Texas decide whether to punish some of Trump’s top nemeses and support candidates he anointed.
Trump appears likely to fail in his quest to defeat Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who angered him by refusing entreaties to overturn his 2020 election loss in the Peach State.
And in Alabama, the U.S. Senate candidate he endorsed and then unendorsed, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, has risen from the dead and may snag a spot in the runoff, which could create a tricky predicament for the former president.
Meanwhile, Trump’s former press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is expected to be nominated for Arkansas governor Tuesday, and Herschel Walker, whom Trump recruited, is expected to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in Georgia.
Also, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who led the legal charge to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss, is in a tight primary runoff with Bush family scion George P. Bush, son of Trump nemesis Jeb Bush. Trump endorsed Paxton, who is seeking a third term while facing criminal charges and an FBI investigation.
Here is a look at the key Trump-involved races on Tuesday’s ballots:
Georgia
Polls show Kemp will likely crush former U.S. Senator David Perdue, who was encouraged to challenge Kemp by Trump in his quest to take down the governor.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who likewise earned Trump’s wrath by refusing to intervene in the 2020 election, also faces a Trump-backed challenger, U.S. Rep. Jody Hice, in his quest for a second term. With four candidates in the race, a runoff is likely, which would give Trump an additional venue to try to take down Raffensperger.
In the U.S. Senate race, Walker – whom Trump encouraged to run and endorsed – appears likely to win the GOP primary, despite questions about his thin political resume and past personal behavior.
To the frustration of his Republican primary opponents, Walker has run a stealth campaign, skipping primary debates, avoiding the media, and making a few carefully crafted public appearances. While that lack of exposure seems to have served him well in the primary, the question will be whether it will work in the fall against Democratic U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock, who possesses significant political skills.
Alabama
Trump initially endorsed Brooks, one of his strongest supporters in the House who led the charge in disputing the 2020 election results. But after Brooks’s poll numbers sank and he urged Republicans to move on from 2020, Trump pulled the endorsement, which was seen at the time as the death knell for Brooks.
However, recent polling indicates a surge of support for Brooks, mostly at the expense of political newcomer Mike Durant, which could propel him into the June 21 runoff against Katie Britt, a former top aide to retiring U.S. Senator Richard Shelby.
Both Britt and Durant have been angling for Trump’s endorsement, to no avail. A Britt-vs-Brooks runoff would put him in the awkward position of either re-endorsing Brooks or supporting Britt, who is backed by Republican establishment figures of whom Trump has been critical. Or he could stay out of the race.
Republican Governor Kay Ivey is facing a gaggle of primary challengers, including Lindy Blanchard, a former Trump ambassador whom he reportedly encouraged to leave the Senate race challenge Ivey. Trump was reportedly miffed at the governor over cancellation of one of his rallies at a state park in Mobile, even though she did not make the decision.
However, Trump has not directly endorsed Blanchard, and Ivey – who consistently polls as one of the nation’s most popular governors – is expected to easily see off her primary foes.
Arkansas
Sanders is expected to win the governor’s primary after bigfooting both Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin and Attorney General Leslie Rutledge out of the race. Neither could get any political oxygen after Trump went all in for Sanders and are now running instead for each other’s current offices.
Republican U.S. Senator John Boozman is facing three primary challengers, including Jake Bequette, a former Arkansas Razorbacks star and NFL player who has criticized Boozman as insufficiently supportive of the MAGA agenda. However, Trump endorsed Boozman, who has been highlighting the endorsement in his advertising.
Texas
In Texas, the Republican primary for attorney general has become a contentious battle between Paxton and Bush, pitting Trump’s endorsed champion against the state’s most famous and successful political family.
Unlike other members of his family, George P. Bush has embraced Trump and has been hitting Paxton on his sea of legal troubles – he’s facing criminal charges for insider trading and is being investigated for bribery by the FBI, a probe started by allegations from his own subordinates.
Still, it is worth remembering that Paxton won re-election in 2018 while facing those same criminal charges – and the Bush name may not have the magic it once did among conservatives in the Lone Star State.
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West Virginia U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney rides Trump endorsement to primary win
Mooney defeats fellow Republican incumbent David McKinley, who voted for bipartisan infrastructure bill and independent January 6th investigation
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
MORGANTOWN, West Virginia (CFP) — Republican U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney has won the hotly contested incumbent-vs-incumbent primary in West Virginia’s 2nd U.S. House District, riding Donald Trump’s coveted endorsement to an easy win over U.S. Rep. David McKinley in the state’s May 10 primary.
U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia
“When Donald Trump puts his mind to something, you better watch out,” Mooney told supporters in his victory speech, in which he said voters in northern West Virginia “spoke loud and clear tonight.”
Mooney also took a shot at Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, who crossed party lines to endorse McKinley, hinting that he might run against him for the Senate when Manchin’s seat comes up in 2024.
“I’m 2-0 against him. Maybe I should make it 3-0,” Mooney said.
Mooney took 54% of the vote to 36% for McKinley, with the rest split among three other candidates. He will be heavily favored in November against Democrat Barry Wendell, a former city council member in Morgantown, who won his party’s primary.
One possible wild card in that race: Mooney is currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations that he misused campaign funds, had office staff perform personal errands, and interfered in a previous ethics investigation. He has denied any wrongdoing.
McKinley and Mooney were forced to run against each other after West Virginia lost one of its three U.S. House seats after 2020 reapportionment. State legislators decided to slice the state into northern and southern districts, throwing both men into a primary for the same seat.
The 2nd District includes the northern and western panhandles and the northern third of the state, including the cities of Morgantown, Wheeling and Parkersburg.
McKinley has represented more of the district than Mooney in the previous House map, but Mooney ended up carrying all but three counties.
Trump endorsed Mooney over McKinley, who was one of just 35 Republicans to support an independent investigation into the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol and one of just 12 GOP members voting for Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.
McKinley later voted against a House-led January 6th investigation in which Republican leaders aren’t participating.
McKinley said he supported the infrastructure measure because West Virginia needed money, but Mooney has labeled him as a RINO – Republican in Name Only – for going along with a plan championed by Biden and Democrats.
The state’s other incumbent U.S. House member, Republican Carol Miller, easily won her primary in the southern 1st District that includes Charleston and Huntington. She will face Democrat Lacy Watson, an instructor at Bluefield State College, in November.
Mountaineer State voters also decided state legislative primaries and other local races Tuesday; there are no statewide races or U.S. Senate seats up this year.
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