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How much can Hillary Clinton dent the South’s Republican hegemony?
Trump must beat Clinton in Florida and North Carolina, and avoid any other Southern surprises, to win
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
(CFP) — In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney blew across the South, carrying 12 of the 14 Southern states — 10 of them by double-digit margins — and losing another, Florida, by just a single point.
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Donald Trump’s quest for the White House may hinge on how well he can hang on to Romney’s Southern support, amid signs that Hillary Clinton is poised to do better in the region than Barack Obama did four years ago.
Pre-election polls show that both Florida, which Obama carried in 2012, and North Carolina, which he did not, are toss-ups between Clinton and Trump.
The news is better for Clinton in Virginia, where polls show her with a clear lead in a state Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012.
Together, those three states have 57 electoral votes, out of the 270 needed to win.
Florida and North Carolina are more important to Trump than to Clinton: She could lose both and still win in the Electoral College, but if he loses either of them, his route to victory is likely cut off.
A key metric in Florida will be how many Latino voters turn out and how much Clinton can benefit from Trump’s anti-immigration stance and incendiary comments about Latinos, particularly Mexicans.
About 15 percent of the Florida electorate is Latino, about 1.8 million voters, and about a third of those voters are Cuban-Americans, normally a reliably Republican group. But Trump’s support in that community — necessary for a Republican to win statewide — remains a question mark.
Much of the GOP Cuban-American political leadership in Miami has refused to endorse Trump, including U.S. Reps. Carlos Curbelo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart. Lieutenant Governor Carlos López-Cantera has also kept his distance from Trump, although he did appear at an event in Miami with the GOP nominee back in October.
With Florida and North Carolina up for grabs, an equally intriguing question heading into election night is the degree to which Trump might be in trouble in other unexpected places in the South.
For instance, three media polls taken last week in Georgia showed that the race between Clinton and Trump in Georgia was a statistical tie. Georgia has not gone for a Democrat for president since 1992, when Clinton’s husband, Bill, won narrowly in a three-way race.
Priorities USA, a Clinton-allied Super PAC, had been airing ads in Georgia, although the Clinton campaign itself has not moved resources into the state.
Polls in mid-October also showed a closer-than-expected race in Texas, where Trump’s weakness among Latino voters seemed to be having an effect. However, more recent polling in Texas has shown Trump reestablishing a lead.
Because most Southern states are perceived to be solid Republican territory, there has been little public polling in most of them, save for Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and Texas.
However, some national polling has shown Trump’s support weaker across the South than what Romney managed to put up four years ago. So, in an election that has seen its share of surprises, there is no way until the votes are counted to know if there might be other Southern surprises lurking in the presidential race.
Poll: Trump may be bleeding Republican support among early voters in Florida
Poll finds that nearly 1 in 3 Republicans who voted early voted for Clinton
♦ By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitcs.com editor
GAINESVILLE, Florida (CFP) — A unique poll of Florida voters who have already cast ballots for the November 8 election finds that Donald Trump may be bleeding Republican voters, allowing Hillary Clinton to open up a substantial lead in the early vote.
The TargetSmart/William & Mary poll found that 27 percent of Republicans who had cast ballots at the time of the poll, taken October 25-30, said they voted for Clinton over Trump, while just 6 percent of Democrats had chosen Trump over Clinton.
If that polling result is accurate, it would mean a net shift of 206,000 votes to Clinton as of November 3, when the count of Republicans who voted early approached 1 million.
Among voters affiliated with neither party, the poll found 40 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Trump. Among all early voters, Clinton led Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 percent to 38 percent.
However, TargetSmart/William & Mary also polled Florida voters who had not yet cast ballots, which showed the race as a tie, with Trump at 43 percent and Clinton at 42 percent, mirroring the results of other national polls.
The poll used both online contact and telephone surveys; therefore, it did not constitute a random sample, and no margin of error could be specified. Also, the sample size was small, including only 311 early voters and 407 people who hadn’t voted.
Still, given that more than 20 percent of registered voters in the Sunshine State cast ballots as of November 3 – including nearly 1 million registered Republicans – any significant erosion of GOP support could present difficulties for Trump’s quest to carry the state. By contrast, Mitt Romney took 93 percent of the Republican vote in 2012.
The poll also combined the early and non-early results in the poll and did a demographic analysis which showed Trump trailing Clinton by a whopping 86-point margin among African-American voters and by 29 points among Latinos.
News polls show Clinton, Trump in dead heat in Georgia
Three public polls show Clinton now within the margin of error
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
ATLANTA (CFP) — Three new public polls show that Hillary Clinton may be poised to do something no Democrat has done in 24 years — carry Georgia in a presidential race.
The latest poll results come as Priorities USA, a Clinton-allied Super PAC, announced that it would begin airing TV and radio ads in the Peach State — the first sign that the Clinton campaign may make a play for the state’s 16 electoral votes.
All three polls showed Clinton within the margin of error in her contest against Donald Trump, in a state Mitt Romney won by 8 points in 2012.
The poll results included:
- Landmark Communications: Trump, 47 percent, and Clinton, 43 percent, within the margin of error plus or minus 4 points.
- Fox5/Opinion Savvy: Trump, 50 percent, and Clinton, 46 percent, within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 points.
- Atlanta Journal Constitution: Trump, 44 percent, and Clinton, 42 percent, within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.
In addition to those polls, a Washington Post/Survey Monkey survey of online respondents gave Clinton a 3-point lead, 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. However, that survey did not use a random sample and, therefore, its margin of error cannot be calculated.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate carried Georgia was when Clinton’s husband, Bill, won in 1992. However, with independent Ross Perot in the race that year, Bill Clinton won with only 43 percent of the vote.
In the past 50 years, a Democrat has carried Georgia with a majority only twice, in 1976 and 1980 when Georgian Jimmy Carter was the nominee. During the same period, Republicans have pulled off that feat seven times, including the last four elections in a row.
In addition to Georgia, three other Southern states are also in play this year — Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. These four states are the largest in the South outside of Texas, with a combined 73 electoral votes, about a quarter of what is needed to capture the presidency.
The latest state polls show Clinton with a strong lead in Virginia and smaller margins in North Carolina and Florida.
No Democrat has captured all four of these states since Harry Truman back in 1948.
Report: Internal GOP polls show Trump in trouble in Georgia
New York Times reports Trump in “dire risk” of losing the Peach State
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
ATLANTA (CFP) — Internal Republican polls show that Republican Donald Trump is in danger of losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton in Georgia, according to a report in The New York Times.
The Times attributed to its October 12 report to people briefed on the polls who spoke on condition of anonymity. The newspaper also reported that Clinton’s campaign has concluded that Georgia is winnable, although her camp has made no move so far to put resources into trying to capture the Peach State.
The Times did not give any specific polling numbers for the race or indicate whether that polling took place before or after video surfaced on October 7 in which Trump made braggadocious comments about being allowed to grab women’s genitals because of his celebrity.
The last public poll in Georgia, conducted by WSB-TV/Landmark on September 20-21, showed Trump at 47 percent and Clinton at 43 percent, which was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage votes. That means that from a statistical perspective, the race was a tie.
A Republican presidential candidate has not taken Georgia in 24 years, since Clinton’s husband, Bill, carried the state back in 1992. Mitt Romney won it by 8 points in 2012.
In addition to Georgia, three other Southern states are also in play — Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. These four states are the largest in the South outside of Texas, with a combined 73 electoral votes, about a quarter of what is needed to capture the presidency.
The latest state polls show Clinton with a strong lead in Virginia, with races in Florida and North Carolina within the margin of error.
No Democrat has captured all four of these states since Harry Truman back in 1948.
Kaine, Pence spar in vice presidential debate in Virginia
Kaine challenges Pence to defend Trump; Pence criticizes Clinton’s foreign policy tenure
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
FARMVILLE, Virginia (CFP) – Vice presidential candidates Tim Kaine and Mike Pence have squared off in their first and only debate, with Kaine challenging Pence to defend Donald Trump’s behavior and Pence criticizing Hillary Clinton as a tax-and-spend liberal whose tenure as secretary of state has led to chaos around the world.
The October 4 debate, at Longwood University in central Virginia, is the only one of this year’s four national debates to take place in the South, and Kaine, a Democratic U.S. senator from Virginia, is the only Southerner on a major party ticket this year.

U.S. Senator Tim Kaine
Kaine was clearly the aggressor, repeatedly interrupting Pence, the Republican governor of Indiana, and challenging him to defend controversial statements that Trump, the GOP standard-bearer, has made in the past.
“He’s called women slobs, pigs, dogs, disgusting,” Kaine said. “He attacked an Indiana-born federal judge and said he was unqualified to hear a federal lawsuit because his parents were Mexican … And he perpetrated this outrageous and bigoted lie that President Obama is not a U.S. citizen.”

Indiana Governor Mike Pence
Pence, in turn, derided what he termed Kaine’s “avalanche of insults” and tried to turn the tables on the Democratic vice presidential nominee.
“If Donald Trump had said all of the things that you’ve said he said in the way you said he said them, he still wouldn’t have a fraction of the insults that Hillary Clinton leveled when she said that half of our supporters were a basket of deplorables,” Pence said.
However, Pence was willing to defend Trump on one line of Democratic attack—namely, that the Republican nominee may have used nearly $1 billion in business losses to avoid paying federal income taxes for decades.
“Donald Trump is a businessman, not a career politician. He actually built a business,” Pence said. “His tax returns showed he went through a very difficult time, but he used the tax code just the way it’s supposed to be used. And he did it brilliantly.”
Kaine responded by taking issue with Trump’s assertion in the first presidential debate that avoiding taxes made him “smart.”
“So it’s smart not to pay for our military?” Kaine said. “It’s smart not to pay for veterans? It’s smart not to pay for teachers? And I guess all of us who do pay for those things, I guess we’re stupid.”
Pence retorted with a question: “Senator, do you take all the deductions you’re entitled to? I do.”
Pence and Trump also sparred over their respective economic plans, with Pence criticizing the Democratic ticket over a proposal to raise income taxes on the wealthiest taxpayers.
“In the wake of a season where American families are struggling in this economy under the weight of higher taxes and Obamacare and the war on coal and the stifling avalanche of regulation coming out of this administration, Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine want more of the same,” he said. “It really is remarkable that they actually are advocating a trillion dollars in tax increases.”
But Kaine criticized the Republicans for proposing new corporate tax breaks that would benefit “people just like Donald Trump,” which he said would repeat the same mistakes made during the Bush administration that led to the 2008-2009 economic downturn.
“Independent analysts say the Clinton plan would grow the economy by 10.5 billion jobs. The Trump plan would cost 3.5 million jobs,” he said. “Why would (Trump) do this? Because his tax plan basically helps him. And if he ever met his promise and he gave his tax returns to the American public like he said he would, we would see just how much his economic plan is really a Trump-first plan.”
Pence, however, insisted that Trump had not broken his promise and would release his tax returns once an ongoing IRS audit was concluded.
IRS officials have repeatedly said that an audit does not preclude a taxpayer from releasing his tax returns. Because of federal privacy laws, the IRS cannot confirm whether Trump is actually being audited.
Pence also offered sharp criticism of Clinton’s tenure as America’s top diplomat, charging that “America is less safe today than it was the day that Barack Obama became president of the United States.”
“It’s absolutely inarguable. We’ve weakened America’s place in the world. It’s been a combination of factors, but mostly, it’s been a lack of leadership,” he said. “Our primary threat today is ISIS, and because Hillary Clinton failed to renegotiation a status-of-forces agreement that would have allowed some American combat troops to remain in Iraq and secure the hard-fought gains the American soldier had won by 2009, ISIS was able to be literally conjured up out of the desert.”
But Kaine noted that at the time the Obama administration came into office, Al Queda leader Osama bin Laden was still alive, the United States had more than 175,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program that it has now agreed to give up.
“Under Secretary Clinton’s leadership, she was part of the public safety team that went after and revived the dormant hunt against bin Laden and wiped him off the face of the earth,” Kaine said. “She worked a tough negotiation with nations around the world to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program without firing a shot.”
Pence also criticized Clinton for using a private e-mail server while she was secretary of state, which he said may have allowed foreign hackers to gain access to sensitive information.
“If your son or my son handled classified information the way Hillary Clinton did, they’d be court martialed,” Pence said, referring to the candidates’ sons who are both serving in the Marine Corps.
Kaine shot back: “That is absolutely false, and you know that,” noting an FBI investigation that resulted in no criminal charges against Clinton or any of her aides over use of the email server.
On other issues:
Immigraton: Kaine said he and Clinton both support comprehensive immigration reform leading to an eventual path to citizenship while Trump “believes in deportation nation.”
“Donald Trump proposes to deport 16 million people, 11 million who are here without documents. And both Donald Trump and Mike Pence want to get rid of birthright citizenship, so if you’re born here, but your parents don’t have documents, they want to eliminate that,” he said. “They want to go house to house, school to school, business to business, and kick out 16 million people.”
Pence insisted that claim was “nonsense,” saying Trump first wants to strengthen border defenses and deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes “and once we’ve done all of those things, … we’re going to reform the immigration system that we have.”
He accused Clinton and Kaine of wanting “to continue the policies of open borders, amnesty, catch and release, sanctuary cities, all the things that are driving wages down in this country.”
Abortion: Pence, who was raised a Roman Catholic and considers himself a born-again Christian, said his opposition to abortion flows from a passage in the Bible where “God says, before you were formed in the womb, I knew you.” He criticized Clinton’s support for repealing a provision in federal law that forbids use of taxpayer funds for abortions—a provision Kaine has supported in the past.
But Kaine, a Roman Catholic who has said he is personally opposed to abortion, said he and Clinton support the right of women to make their own decisions on the issue.
“I think you should live your moral values. But the last thing, the very last thing government should do is have laws that would punish women who make reproductive choices,” he said.
In an interview earlier in the campaign, Trump indicated he might support criminal penalties for women who have abortions. But he quickly walked back from that position, and Pence told the debate audience that he and Trump “would never support legislation that punished women who made the heartbreaking choice to end a pregnancy.”
