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U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham forms presidential exploratory committee
South Carolina Republican highlighting his foreign policy credentials
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
WASHINGTON (CFP) — U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has formed a committee to explore a bit for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham
Graham’s committee, named “Strength through Security,” will enable the senator “to travel the country, listen to Americans, and gauge support for a potential presidential candidacy,” according to an announcement on the group’s website.
Graham, 59, was elected to his third term in the Senate last November, after battling back a gaggle of Tea Party challengers in the GOP primary.
While Graham’s bipartisan work with Democrats has drawn fire from conservative activists in his own party, his hawkish stands on foreign policy and defense issues puts him squarely in the conservative camp.
The website for his new organization calls him “as a conservative problem-solver and one of the strongest proponents of a robust national defense.”
Graham is also a close friend and ally of Senator John McCain of Arizona, who was the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. McCain has been touting a Graham presidential candidacy in the media.
Graham is one of nine Southerners — eight Republicans and one Democrat — considering a White House bid in 2016.
Among the potential Southern GOP candidates are former governors Jeb Bush of Florida, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Rick Perry of Texas; U.S. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already launched an exploratory committee for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination — a race that’s expected to be dominated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a former first lady of Arkansas.
Analysis: Midterms a show of woe for Southern Democrats
GOP has a particularly strong showing in the upper South, where Democrats have recently been competitive
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
(CFP) — One look at a color-coded map of midterm election results in any Southern state tells the story – there’s a tsunami of red and a shrinking pool of blue.
Take Texas, for example, with its 254 counties. Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn carried 236 of them; the Republican candidate for governor, Attorney General Greg Abbott, carried 235. The only blue is found in Dallas, El Paso, Austin and along the Mexican border.
But that’s still more blue than in Oklahoma, where both Republican U.S. Senate candidates swept all 77 counties, and in West Virginia, where GOP Senate candidate Shelley Moore Capito swept all 55, despite the fact that Democrats have a 350,000-person lead in voter registration.
A deeper look at the numbers from the midterm elections shows just how far Democrats have fallen from the halcyon days when they had an iron grip on the solid South. They’re not just losing; lately, they’re not even competitive.
And perhaps even more troubling for Democrats is the fact that the dam seems to have burst in states in the upper South, where the party had been holding its own at the state level.
This year, 13 of 14 Southern states — all but Florida — had a U.S. Senate election, and two states — Oklahoma and South Carolina — had two. Setting aside Louisiana, which is headed to a runoff, and Alabama, which Democrats didn’t even bother to contest, GOP candidates won by an average of nearly 21 points.
Democrats couldn’t crack 30 percent in either Oklahoma race. They failed to crack 40 percent in six others. In fact, Republicans won by double digits in 10 races. Only Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina were close, with the GOP taking the latter two.
Things were just about as bad in races for governor, where the GOP margin of victory was about 18 percent. Republicans won by double digits in six of the eight governor’s races. Only Florida and Georgia were even remotely close.
The news was particularly bad for Democrats in three upper South states that were politically competitive a decade ago – West Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee.
In West Virginia, Democrats not only lost the U.S. Senate race, but they lost all three U.S. House seats, and Republicans took control of both houses of the state legislature for the first time since 1931.
With Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor’s loss, Arkansas will have an all-Republican congressional delegation for the first time since Reconstruction. Heading into the election, Democrats held five out of the seven statewide constitutional officers. In the midterm, they lost all seven.
Tennessee used to be split between Republicans in the east and Democrats in the west. Now, the GOP is winning everywhere, holding seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats. Both Alexander and Governor Bill Haslam, re-elected with 71 percent of the vote, carried Shelby County, which includes the Democratic bastion of Memphis.
Increasingly, Democrats seem to be doing better in the deep South, where they can rely on the support of black voters, than in the upper South, where black populations are smaller.
For example, Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, despite being a long-time incumbent in a very red state, won by a smaller margin than did Republican Tom Cotton, who beat Pryor like a rug in Arkansas.
Some might attribute Graham’s narrower margin to his Tea Party problems. But Alexander — who faced a similar Tea Party dynamic — managed to win by 30 points in Tennessee.
What is clear from the midterms is that despite recent gains at the presidential level in states such as North Carolina and Virginia, Democrats are becoming less competitive across the region, and the South is becoming more monolithically red.
Indeed, the midterm results support the argument that in most of the South, the two-party system is becoming a relic of the past.
Analysis: Southern Senate races expose fault line that GOP must correct
Incumbents’ weak victories show bitter primaries have become the new normal
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
Tea Party-backed insurgents struck out in their quest to unseat sitting Southern Republican U.S. senators this year, with a final tally of 0-for-5.
But while those results are arguably a significant victory for the powers that be in the GOP, a closer look at the results shows a deep and potentially problematic fault line running right through the party. And the rancor and contention generated by the establishment’s aggressive push back against the Tea Party has made that fault line wider.
Historically, sitting senators rarely face much of a battle for renomination. If they have any opposition at all, it is usually dispatched with an easy majority of 70 or 80 percent. While that is still largely true for Democrats, for Republicans — in the South and elsewhere — bitter primary contests seem to have become the new normal. True, all the incumbents survived this year. But they didn’t exactly set the world on fire.
In Tennessee, Lamar Alexander — a well-respected former Cabinet secretary and university president who has won statewide office four times — could only manage a meager 50 percent, while in Mississippi, Thad Cochran was dragged into a runoff that he only survived with the help of Democrats.
John Cornyn in Texas and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina did a bit better (59 percent and 56 percent, respectively), but they should be thankful that their opposition was as weak as it was. If bigger names had gotten into either of these races, the outcome might have been very different.
The Southern GOP senator who performed the best was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who took 60 percent in his race, despite an avalanche of outside help given to his opponent, Matt Bevin. But that brutish primary did nothing to help McConnell’s prospects in a tough race this fall with Democratic Secretary of State Alison Ludergan Grimes.
What these races, collectively, show is that 40 percent or more of the Republican primary electorate is unhappy enough with their own elected leaders that they are prepared to vote them out — even if that means nominating little known candidates who, in many cases, seem less than fit to sit in the Senate.
For the time being, the GOP might be able to ignore this fault line because there is little indication, except perhaps in Kentucky, that Democrats will be able to take advantage of the Republican schism to flip seats in November.
But if Republicans can’t figure out a way to avoid this internal warfare, Democrats are eventually going to figure out a way to use it to their advantage. And that presents a real and present danger to the political hegemony that the GOP has built in the South.
Yes, 2014 was a victory for the establishment. But it was also a danger-Will-Robinson moment. And the bitterness left over from these primary fights has probably made the divisions within the party even worse, particularly in Mississippi.
Few of those Tea Party Republicans who feel scorned by their party are going to vote Democratic in November, but more than a few may stay home. Is this hemorrhage from the base likely to imperil these sitting Southern senators? No, except maybe for McConnell. But if the establishment can’t find a way to bridge this divide, there is certainly potential for trouble ahead.
Reality star with drug conviction files to run against U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham
Thomas Ravenel, a once-rising GOP political star in South Carolina, seeks a comeback as an independent
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
COLUMBIA, South Carolina (CFP) — After successfully fending off a gaggle of GOP primary challengers, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham will likely face a Republican-turned-independent with a checkered and colorful past in November.
Senate candidate Thomas Ravenel
Thomas Ravenel, 51, who resigned as South Carolina state treasurer in 2007 after being arrested on cocaine distribution charges, collected more than 16,000 signatures to qualify as independent. If those signatures are certified, he will be on the ballot against Graham this fall.
Ravenel spent 10 months in federal prison on the drug charges. He is also a cast member on the Bravo network’s reality show Southern Charm.
As a convicted felon, Ravenel won’t be able to vote for himself, although federal law does not prohibit felons from running for federal office.
Speaking to reporters after delivering his petition signatures on July 14, Ravenel admitted he was an “imperfect messenger.”
“My personal life is my problem,” he said. “Lindsey Graham’s public life is your problem — everyone’s problem.”
In recent media interviews, Ravenel has touted his libertarian positions, saying one of his political causes would be drug legalization.
Ravenel hails from a prominent Charleston family and is the son of former Republican U.S. Rep. Arthur Ravenel Jr. He was considered a rising star when he was elected state treasurer in 2006, but he was forced to resign after just seven months in office after being arrested on the cocaine charges.
He also pleaded guilty to drunken driving charges in New York in 2013.
While Graham’s campaign has not commented on Ravenel’s entry into the race, the South Carolina Republican Party issued a blistering denunciation, calling his campaign a publicity stunt.
“His so-called campaign an embarrassment, and the people of South Carolina don’t appreciate it one bit,” Republican spokesman Matt Orr said in the statement.
But the Palmetto State is no stranger to political redemption. Former Governor Mark Sanford won a seat in the U.S. House in 2013 despite a messy scandal involving clandestine trips to visit an Argentinian mistress.
Graham was the No. 1 target of Tea Party and outside conservative groups who tried to oust him in June’s Republican primary. He won but with just 56 percent of the vote — potentially leaving room for a conservative independent candidate such as Ravenel.
Also in the race is Democratic State Senator Brad Hutto.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham rolls to primary victory in South Carolina
Graham avoids runoff with majority in a race against six GOP rivals
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
COLUMBIA, South Carolina (CFP) — U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham — the No. 1 target of Tea Party and anti-establishment groups in this year’s GOP primaries — has easily won renomination over a field of six challengers.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham
Graham took 56 percent of the vote in the June 10 Republican primary, far ahead of the second place finisher, State Senator Lee Bright of Spartanburg, who took just 15 percent. The rest of the field polled in single digits.
Graham will now face Democratic State Senator Brad Hutto of Orangeburg, who won the Democratic primary, Given the state’s strong Republican tendencies, Graham will be a prohibitive favorite.
Graham, 58, who is seeking this third term in the Senate, has run afoul of some Tea Party groups and conservative anti-establishment activists for his efforts to reach bi-partisan compromises with Democrats, including his support of an immigration reform bill that was opposed by most Republican senators.
His close political and personal friendship with U.S. Senator John McCain of Arizona has also drawn fire, particularly over their blistering criticism of U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky for his filibuster over President Obama’s drone strike policy. Tea Party groups tried, and failed, to oust McCain during his 2010 re-election bid.
However, over the past year, Graham has buttressed his conservative credentials with heavy criticism of the Obama administration for its handling of the terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and for the IRS’s targeting of tax exempt groups.
Graham benefited from the large number of Republicans who filed to run against him, which fragmented the field and did not allow any of them to catch fire.
Fully anticipating he would be challenged in the primary, Graham also raised and spent more than $7 million, dwarfing his competitors, according to reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission.
Graham is one of five sitting Southern Republican senators in 2014 who have drawn primary challengers backed by Tea Party and anti-establishment conservative groups. Those challenges fell short in Kentucky and Texas but in Mississippi, U.S. Senator Thad Cochran was forced into a runoff. The fifth race is in Tennessee, which doesn’t hold its primary until August.
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