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Four southern U.S. Senate races are still too close to call
GOP holding leads in Arkansas and West Virginia; Democrats holding tough in Georgia and Kentucky
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
WASHINGTON (CFP) — Two weeks out from election day, races for four southern U.S. Senate seats — two held by each party — are still too close to call, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance.
The latest polling shows races in North Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia are within the margin of error, while the race in Louisiana now seems certain to be heading toward a December runoff.
Depending on how these Southern races turn out, the question of which party will control the Senate could linger for more than a month before runoffs in Louisiana and possibly Georgia.
U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton
However, Republicans appear poised to pick up an open Democratic seat in West Virginia, and GOP U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton appears to have opened up a small lead over incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor in Arkansas.
Democrats hold only eight out of 28 southern Senate seats. One of those seats, in West Virginia, is likely gone, and three others — in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — are in jeopardy.
The good news for Democrats is that two GOP-held seats, in Kentucky and Georgia, have turned out to be surprisingly competitive, despite the Republican tilt in both of those states.
Here are the current states of the southern Senate races:
Arkansas: The race between Cotton and Pryor has been neck-and-neck for the better part of a year, as outside groups poured tons of money into the Natural
State. But a Talk Business and Politics/Hendrix College poll released October 15 showed that Cotton has opened up an 8-point lead, the third media poll in a row that put the challenger ahead.
Louisiana: Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and her chief Republican rival, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, about even but both far from the 50 percent either would need to avoid a runoff in the state’s jungle primary, where all candidates from all parties run in the same race. That would set up a December 6 runoff between the two, a head-to-head match-up that’s still too close to call.
West Virginia: This race is to pick a successor to retiring Democratic U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller, and it looks increasingly like a GOP pickup, with U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito opening up a significant lead over Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. A CBS News/New York Times/YouGov poll in early October had Capito ahead by 23 points.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
Kentucky: The Senate’s top Republican, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is in a pitched battle with Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Recent polls have shown the race as either too close to call or with McConnell slightly in the lead.
Georgia: This race, to pick a successor to retiring Republican U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss, is a contest between two political newcomers, Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn. Despite Georgia’ GOP tilt, Nunn has run a strong race, and the latest polling shows the contest within the margin of error. An interesting twist in Georgia is that if neither Perdue nor Nunn wins a majority, they would meet in a runoff December 10 — a possibility if the race is close and votes are syphoned off by third-party candidates.
North Carolina: Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan is seeking a second term against Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis. Recent polling has shown this race is also within the margin of error.
Poll: Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis in dead heat in North Carolina U.S. Senate race
Poll has Democrat Hagan and Republican Tillis within the margin of error
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com
RALEIGH (CFP) — Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and her GOP challenger, State House Speaker Thom Tillis, are in a statistical dead heat in Senate race in North Carolina, a new poll shows.
U.S. Senator Kay Hagan
The Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed Hagan’s support at 45 percent to 43 percent for Tillis, which was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
The poll found a significant gender gap in the race. Hagan held an 18-point lead among women, while Tillis had a 14-point lead among men.
Hagan, 61, who is seeking a second term, is one of the top Republican targets in this election cycle. Tillis, 53, won a hotly contested GOP primary to win the right to take her on.
Outside groups supporting both candidates have already poured more than $10 million into the race.
Clay Aiken’s opponent in North Carolina U.S. House primary dies in fall
Keith Crisco dies as absentee ballots were still being counted in razor-close contest with Aiken
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
RALEIGH (CFP) — American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken’s opponent in the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 2nd District U.S. House seat, Keith Crisco, died May 12 after a fall at his home in Asheboro, his family confirmed in a statement.
U.S. House candidate Keith Crisco
Crisco’s death came as provisional and absentee ballots were still being counted from the May 6 primary, with Aiken leading by just 369 votes. Crisco, 71, a businessman and former state commerce secretary, had not conceded the race.
Aiken, saying he was “stunned and deeply saddened” by Crisco’s death, announced that he was suspending all campaign activities.
“He was a gentleman, a good and honorable man and an extraordinary public servant. I was honored to know him,” Aiken said in a statement.
Crisco’s death will mean that Aiken will be his party’s nominee for the seat now held by Republican U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, who beat back a Tea Party primary challenge from Frank Roche, a Raleigh radio talk show host.
Ellmers also released a statement of condolence, saying Crisco’s “kindness and dedication to his principles were models we should all strive toward, and he will be dearly missed.”
The 2nd District includes parts of Raleigh and suburban areas to the west, southeast and northeast..
Democratic U.S. House candidate Clay Aiken
Aiken, 35, a Raleigh native, was a special education teacher when he rocketed to fame in 2003 by coming in second on the Fox network’s popular singing competition. He is making his first bid for political office. If elected in November, he will be the first openly gay congressman from North Carolina.
American Idol Clay Aiken holds tiny lead in North Carolina U.S. House primary
If his lead holds, Aiken will face Republican U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers for 5th District seat in November
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
RALEIGH (CFP) — American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken is holding a razor-thin lead in the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 2nd District U.S. House seat, just enough to avoid a runoff.
Democratic U.S. House candidate Clay Aiken
With provisional and absentee ballots still to be counted, Aiken had 11,634 votes, compared to 11,265 votes for Keith Crisco, the former state commerce secretary, and 5,593 votes for Toni Morris, a professional counselor who sought the 2nd District seat in 2012, according to tallies from the State Board of Elections.
In order to avoid a primary runoff in North Carolina, a candidate has to win more than 40 percent of the vote. The current vote totals show Aiken clearing that hurdle by just 237 votes.
State law also calls for an automatic recount if the margin of victory turns out to be 1 percent or less. It currently stands at 1.3 percent.
Despite the narrow margin, Aiken told supporters at a victory rally in Raleigh that “we are feeling incredibly comfortable tonight.”
“People are ready to see a change in Washington, and we’re going to bring it to them,” he said.
Aiken, 35, a Raleigh native, was a special education teacher when he rocketed to fame in 2003 by coming in second on the Fox network’s popular singing competition. He is making his first bid for political office. If elected in November, he will be the first openly gay congressman from North Carolina.
U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers
If his lead holds, Aiken will face incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers in November. Ellmers beat back a Tea Party primary challenge from Frank Roche, a Raleigh radio talk show host, with 58 percent of the vote.
Roche had criticized Ellmers for her support of an immigration reform bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Ellmers is one of the few House Republicans who supports the measure, and Roche’s challenge was seen as a test of how strongly that issue resonates within the GOP electorate.
The 2nd District includes parts of Raleigh and suburban areas to the west, southeast and northeast.
Click here to watch video of Clay Aiken’s victory speech.
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