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Poll: Among Southern White House contenders, Rubio viewed most favorably by GOP voters

Republican voters in Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll had the least favorable view of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham

southern states smWASHINGTON (CFP) — A new poll finds that among the eight Southerners considering a bid for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio is viewed most favorably by Republican voters.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio

Fifty-six percent of Republican voters surveyed by in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll said they could see themselves supporting Rubio, while just 26 percent could not, a favorability gap of 30 points. Fourteen percent were undecided.

Not only was that the best showing among the potential Southern contenders, but it was better than every other expected candidate in the field except Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who had a favorability gap of 36 percent.

At the other end of the spectrum, just 26 percent of Republican voters said they could see themselves supporting U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, while 51 percent — an outright majority — could not, an unfavorability gap of 31 points. However, 29 percent were still undecided about Graham.

The poll showed Republican voters may have largely made up their minds about three of the possible candidates in the race — former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. The percentage of undecided for all three was under 12 percent.

But substantial percentages of the GOP voters have not made up their minds about Graham, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, all of whom had undecided readings above 20 percent.

The margin of error in the poll, released March 11, was plus or minus 6.48 percentage points.

Here is how the other potential Southern candidates fared:

  • Huckabee: 52 percent could support, 40 percent could not support, 8 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 12 points.
  • Bush: 49 percent could support, 42 percent could not support, 9 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 7 points.
  • Paul of Kentucky: 49 percent could support, 40 percent could not support, 11 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 9 points.
  • Former Texas Governor Rick Perry: 45 percent could support, 40 percent could not support, 15 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 5 points.
  • Cruz: 40 percent could support, 38 percent could not support, 22 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 2 points.
  • Jindal: 36 percent could support, 25 percent could not support, 39 percent undecided. Favorability gap of 11 points.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already launched an exploratory committee for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination — a race that’s expected to be dominated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a former first lady of Arkansas.

Kentucky GOP okays switch to 2016 caucus to help U.S. Senator Rand Paul

Decision to change presidential selection process clears way for Paul to seek both re-election and the White House

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

kentucky mugBOWLING GREEN Kentucky (CFP) — Republican Party leaders in Kentucky have agreed to switch their presidential nominating contest in 2016 from a primary to a caucus, clearing a potential hurdle in U.S. Senator Rand Paul’s expected run for the GOP presidential nomination.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul

U.S. Senator Rand Paul

After a closed-door meeting March 7, the state party’s executive committee approved the change, which must still be approved by the full party central committee in August.

Paul appeared at the executive committee meeting in Bowling Green to meet with party leaders and lobby for the change. His campaign has agreed to raise money to cover the costs associated with holding a caucus.

However, the proposed change was blasted by the Bluegrass State’s top elections official, Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who said the switch to a caucus would introduce “chaos” into the process by disenfranchising voters who would not be able to attend.

“I call on the Republican Party of Kentucky to provide details on how all their voters would be able to participate and how the party intends to uphold the integrity of the process,” she said.

Paul has already kicked off his Senate re-election campaign and is expected to make a decision on the presidential race this spring.

Grimes, who ran unsuccessfully against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014, has been insisting that a state law prohibiting a candidate from appearing for two different offices on the same ballot precludes Paul from seeking re-election to the Senate while also running in the May 2016 presidential primary.

Kentucky Democrats, who control the state House and the governorship, have blocked efforts by Paul’s allies to change the state law against political double-dipping

The switch to a caucus, which would be held on a different day earlier in the year, would get around the problem, although if Paul were to win the GOP presidential nomination, he would face the same problem in the November 2016 general election.

Paul maintains the law is unconstitutional because of a 1995 Supreme Court ruling that a state can’t impose its own restrictions in races for federal offices. He has hinted that he may file a federal lawsuit if any attempt is made to keep him from seeking both offices.

A Bluegrass/Survey USA poll last September showed 66 percent of state voters and 54 percent of Republicans were opposed to changing the law.

There is historical precedent for running for both the presidency or vice presidency and Congress at the same time, most recently in 2012 when U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, was re-elected to his House seat in Wisconsin.

Vice President Joe Biden also won Senate re-election in 2008 on the same day he was elected vice president, as did Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

The only other senator up for re-election in 2016 considering a White House bid, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, has said he will give up his Senate seat if he pursues the Republican presidential nomination.

Poll: South Carolinians don’t want U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham to run for president

Winthrop University survey finds little support for a Graham White House bid, even among Republicans

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

south-carolina mugSPARTANBURG, South Carolina (CFP) — Most South Carolinians say they do not want their senior U.S. senator, Lindsey Graham, to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, according a new poll.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham

A Winthrop University survey released March 4 found more than 60 percent of state residents opposed to Graham running for the White House, with just 28 percent saying they thought the senator’s candidacy was a good idea.

Among self-identified Republicans and those who lean Republican, 34 percent thought Graham should run, while 57 percent were opposed.

The poll of 1,109 residents of the Palmetto State had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Graham, 59, elected to his third term in the Senate last November, launched a presidential exploratory committee in January, saying that was seriously considering running for president on a national security platform.

If he runs, he would be a favorite son in the key South Carolina primary, scheduled for February 2016, which is traditionally the first primary held in the South.

Graham is one of nine Southerners — eight Republicans and one Democrat — considering a White House bid in 2016.

Among the potential Southern GOP candidates are former governors Jeb Bush of Florida, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Rick Perry of Texas; U.S. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already launched an exploratory committee for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination — a race that’s expected to be dominated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a former first lady of Arkansas.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul wants Kentucky GOP to switch to a presidential caucus

The move would eliminate a potential hurdle to Paul seeking both re-election and the White House

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor

kentucky mugLOUISVILLE (CFP) — U.S. Senator Rand Paul is asking Republican leaders in Kentucky to switch from a presidential primary to a caucus in 2016 — a move which would allow him to run for president and the Senate at the same time.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul

U.S. Senator Rand Paul

In a letter to the Kentucky Republican Central Committee, Paul asked party leaders to abandon the May 2016 primary in favor of a caucus earlier in the year, which he said would make the Bluegrass State more relevant in the presidential nominating process.

“By May 2016, the GOP will likely have decided its nominee, rendering our votes useless in deciding anything,” Paul said.

However, Paul conceded that the change would also allow him to get around a state law that doesn’t allow the same person to be on the ballot for two offices in the same election, which would happen if he were running for re-election to the Senate and the White House at the same time.

“My request to you is simply to be treated equally compared to other potential candidates for the presidency,” he said.

The committee will consider Paul’s request at a March 7 meeting.

Paul has already kicked off his Senate re-election campaign and is expected to make a decision on the presidential race this spring.

Kentucky Democrats, who control the state House and the governorship, have blocked efforts by Paul’s allies to change the state law against political double-dipping. However, a change to a caucus would not require their approval.

A Bluegrass/Survey USA poll last September showed 66 percent of state voters and 54 percent of Republicans were opposed to changing the law.

Paul maintains the law is unconstitutional because of a 1995 Supreme Court ruling that a state can’t impose its own restrictions in races for federal offices. He has hinted that he may file a federal lawsuit if any attempt is made to keep him from seeking both offices. Another option would be forgo Kentucky’s presidential primary while seeking re-election to the Senate.

There is historical precedent for running for both the presidency or vice presidency and Congress at the same time, most recently in 2012 when U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, was re-elected to his House seat in Wisconsin.

Vice President Joe Biden also won Senate re-election in 2008 on the same day he was elected vice president, as did Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

The only other senator up for re-election in 2016 considering a White House bid, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, has said he will give up his Senate seat if he pursues the Republican presidential nomination.

Poll: Bush and Clinton in dead heat in Florida

New Quinnipiac poll finds Clinton leading other Republican contenders in Sunshine State

♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitcs.com editor

florida mugMIAMI (CFP) — Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in a statistical dead heat in a hypothetical 2016 presidential match-up in the key swing state of Florida, a new poll finds.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Quinnipiac University poll of 936 registered voters in Florida found Clinton was the choice of 44 percent, compared to 43 percent for Bush — within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

However, Clinton, a Democrat, fared much better in hypothetical match-ups with four other potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates, including Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.

The poll found Clinton led Rubio 49 percent to 39 percent among Florida voters, outside the margin of error.

Against three other Republican candidates, Clinton did even better, cracking 50 percent and holding double-digit leads over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.