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Donald Trump kicks off 2020 re-election with mass rally in Orlando
Trump touts economic growth, hits Democrats for socialism, calls Russia investigation “great illegal witch hunt”
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
ORLANDO (CFP) — To shouts of “Four More Years” and “Build The Wall” from an exuberant capacity crowd, President Donald Trump formally kicked off his 2020 re-election campaign Tuesday night with a stem-winding speech in the key swing state of Florida.
“We did it once, and we’re going to do it again,” Trump told the crowd at the Amway Center in Orlando, many of whom had waited hours in the summer sun and braved thunderstorms for the chance to get inside. “And this time, we’re going to finish the job.”
President Donald Trump addresses his campaign kickoff rally in Orlando on June 18 (YouTube)
“I have news for Democrats who want to take us back to the bitter failure and betrayals of the past. We are not going back.”
The president also unveiled the new tagline for his 2020 campaign: “Keep America Great,” building on 2016’s theme of “Make America Great Again.”
During his hour-long speech, Trump touted the nation’s robust economy, lower unemployment, tax cuts and appointment of conservative judges as evidence of his administration’s accomplishments.
But he also spent the first part of his speech relitigating the Russia investigation, which he called a “great illegal witch hunt” designed to overturn the results of 2016 election.
“No president should ever have to go through this again. It’s so bad for our country,” he said. “No collusion, no obstruction. And they spent $40 million on this witch hunt.”
The president largely avoided mentioning his potential 2020 Democratic opponents by name in his speech, except for a single reference each to “Sleepy Joe” Biden and “Crazy Bernie” Sanders.
However, in a likely preview of next year”s campaign, he offered biting criticism of the Democratic Party, which he said had embraced socialism and was “more radical, more dangerous and more unhinged than at any point in the history of our country.”
“America will never be a socialist country. Ever,” he said. “Republicans don’t believe in socialism. We believe in freedom, and so do you.”
Trump also blamed Democrats for what he termed “illegal mass migration” and accused them of “moral cowardice” for being unwilling to fix an immigration system that he branded as a “disgrace.”
The president also leaned in on his hard-line trade policy that has drawn criticism even from some Republican members of Congress, insisting tariffs have revived the American steel industry and let China know that “the days of stealing American jobs … are over.”
Fans of the president began lining up outside the Amway Center, which seats 20,000 people, some 40 hours before the speech began.
Trump told the crowd that 120,000 people had requested tickets for the rally, which marked an unusually early campaign kickoff for an incumbent president.
The president carried Florida in 2016 on his way to winning the Electoral College, and the Sunshine State will again be a state he’ll need to secure a second term.
Orlando sits in the I-4 corridor, a swath of Central Florida that often plays decisive roles in statewide elections.
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Poll showing Biden with a lead over Trump in Texas is not what it seems
Media reports of Quinnipiac poll overstate possibility that Trump is in trouble in the Lone Star State
♦By Rich Shumate, ChickenFriedPolitics.com editor
AUSTIN (CFP) — Media organizations have been trumpeting results of a new poll that purports to show President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas — a somewhat shocking result, given that a Democrat hasn’t carried the Lone Star State since 1976 and hasn’t been close since 1996.
But a closer look at the numbers of the Quinnipiac Poll show that, from a purely statistical perspective, those reports may be misleading.
The poll, released June 5, found Biden leading Trump by a margin of 48-44 percent among registered voters in Texas, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.
What that margin of error means is that Biden’s actual support among registered voters in Texas could be as high as 51.4 percent or as low as 44.6 percent; Trump’s actual support could be as high as 47.4 percent or as low as 40.6 percent.
Because those two intervals overlap, it is statistically possible that Trump is actually ahead, as the high end of his support is above the low end of Biden’s support. So although it is probable that Biden has a lead, because the range of his support is higher, the poll does not absolutely establish a lead for Biden.
In order to establish with statistical certainty that Biden is leading Trump, his lead would need to be at least 6.8 percent, or double the margin of error.
The poll’s results for hypothetical match-ups of Trump with other Democratic 2020 contenders are even more muddled because neither candidate has a lead larger than the margin of error, which means that no one can even be said to even probably be ahead.
The poll results do, however, indicate that at this early stage of the race, the battle for Texas is closer that what might be expected and Biden appears to be performing more strongly against Trump than other 2020 competitors, including two Texans, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro.
In 2016, Trump carried Texas by more than 800,000 votes, a margin of 9 points.
The Quinnipiac poll did turn up one result well beyond the margin of error — 60 percent of Texas don’t want to see Trump impeached, while only 34 percent do.
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Alabama Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones sworn in
Jones is first Alabama Democrat to sit in the Senate since 1997
WASHINGTON (CFP) — Democrat Doug Jones has been officially sworn in as a U.S. senator, capping the remarkable and improbable political feat of capturing a Senate seat in one of the nation’s most Republican states.
U.S. Senator Doug Jones is sworn in. (Courtesy C-SPAN)
Jones, flanked by former Vice President Joe Biden, was sworn in on January 3 by Vice President Mike Pence, alongside Democrat Tina Smith, who assumed the Senate seat from Minnesota vacated by Al Franken. The ceremony was then re-enacted in the Old Senate Chamber, where Jones was accompanied by his family.
Jones assumed the seat once held by his mentor and former boss, the late U.S. Senator Howell Heflin, who was the last Democrat to represent the Yellowhammer State when he retired in 1997.
With Jones in the Senate, Republicans will hold a scant 51-49 advantage. With Pence available to break ties, Democrats need just two Republican votes to stop the majority from passing legislation.
Jones, 63, a former federal prosecutor from Birmingham, was given little chance to win the seat when a special election was called in April to pick a permanent replacement for Republican Jeff Sessions, who resigned to become U.S. attorney general.
But interest in Jones began picking up after the man picked to fill Session’s seat on a temporary basis, Luther Strange, was defeated in a Republican primary runoff by Roy Moore, the controversial former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. And then, a month before the December 12 election, the race was rocked by allegations that Moore had sexually pursued teenage girls when he was in his 30s.
Moore vehemently denied the charges. But GOP Senate leaders quickly disavowed him and tried to push him out of the race, to no avail. Alabama Republican U.S. Senator Richard Shelby was among Moore’s detractors, saying publicly that he would not vote for Moore.
Almost alone among Republicans, President Donald Trump stood by Moore, telling his supporters that letting a “liberal” like Jones into the Senate would harm his agenda. But Republican defections, coupled with a strong turnout by African American voters, put Jones over the top by 22,000 votes.
Jones is one of only five Democrats representing Southern states in the Senate, joining U.S. Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine of Virginia, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Bill Nelson of Florida. The other 23 Southern senators are Republicans.
Jones will now serve the remainder of Sessions term, which comes up for election again in 2020.
Poll: Bush, Rubio open up lead over Hillary Clinton in Florida
Clinton’s unfavorable rating in Florida climbs to 55 percent
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com
GAINESVILLE, Florida (CFP) — U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush have opened up big leads over Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in the presidential race in the key swing state of Florida, a new poll shows.
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio
The Quinnipiac Poll released August 20 also shows New York businessman Donald Trump and Bush leading among Florida Republicans; however, nearly 30 percent of state GOP voters say they would definitely not support the controversial Trump if he became the nominee.
In a hypothetical general election race, Bush bests Clinton 49 percent to 38 percent, well outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. Rubio does even better, 51 percent to 39 percent.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
The results are a marked change from the same poll in June, when Clinton held a slight lead over both Bush and Rubio. And in the latest poll, 55 percent of Florida voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton — up 10 points from June.
Nearly two-thirds of Florida voters — 64 percent — say Clinton is not honest or trustworthy.
Clinton even narrowly trails Trump, 43 percent to 41 percent, although that gap was within the margin of error.
In nine of the last 10 presidential elections, the winner of the presidential race in Florida also won nationally, making a victory in the Sunshine State vital for anyone who wants to capture the White House.
In the GOP primary race, Trump was the choice of 21 percent of Florida Republicans, with Bush at 17 percent, which was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson tied for third at 11 percent each.
However, 29 percent of Republican voters polled say they will definitely not support Trump if he is the nominee, a larger group than those now supporting him. And just 55 percent of the GOP voters polled view Trump positively, compared to 87 percent for Rubio and 81 percent for Bush.
Trump’s demeanor is also seen as a problem, with 64 percent saying he lacks the temperament and personality to handle an international crisis.
In the Democratic primary race, Clinton still maintains a wide lead in Florida, with support from 48 percent of Democrats polled. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont trails at 15 percent, and Vice President Joe Biden, who had yet to announce a 2016 White House bid, comes in at 11 percent.
In head-to-head matchups against Republicans, Biden runs slightly better against Rubio and Trump than does Clinton but slightly worse against Bush. The poll shows Sanders is weaker than Clinton against all three Republicans.
In the poll, 1093 Florida voters were interviewed, including 477 Republicans and 345 Democrats.
In 2016, the Florida primary will be held early in the primary calendar, on March 15, which is likely to give the state added prominence in the presidential nominating process.
The Florida GOP has also made its contest a winner-take-all affair, which means the winner gets a treasure trove of 99 delegates.
Kentucky GOP okays switch to 2016 caucus to help U.S. Senator Rand Paul
Decision to change presidential selection process clears way for Paul to seek both re-election and the White House
♦By Rich Shumate, Chickenfriedpolitics.com editor
BOWLING GREEN Kentucky (CFP) — Republican Party leaders in Kentucky have agreed to switch their presidential nominating contest in 2016 from a primary to a caucus, clearing a potential hurdle in U.S. Senator Rand Paul’s expected run for the GOP presidential nomination.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul
After a closed-door meeting March 7, the state party’s executive committee approved the change, which must still be approved by the full party central committee in August.
Paul appeared at the executive committee meeting in Bowling Green to meet with party leaders and lobby for the change. His campaign has agreed to raise money to cover the costs associated with holding a caucus.
However, the proposed change was blasted by the Bluegrass State’s top elections official, Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who said the switch to a caucus would introduce “chaos” into the process by disenfranchising voters who would not be able to attend.
“I call on the Republican Party of Kentucky to provide details on how all their voters would be able to participate and how the party intends to uphold the integrity of the process,” she said.
Paul has already kicked off his Senate re-election campaign and is expected to make a decision on the presidential race this spring.
Grimes, who ran unsuccessfully against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014, has been insisting that a state law prohibiting a candidate from appearing for two different offices on the same ballot precludes Paul from seeking re-election to the Senate while also running in the May 2016 presidential primary.
Kentucky Democrats, who control the state House and the governorship, have blocked efforts by Paul’s allies to change the state law against political double-dipping
The switch to a caucus, which would be held on a different day earlier in the year, would get around the problem, although if Paul were to win the GOP presidential nomination, he would face the same problem in the November 2016 general election.
Paul maintains the law is unconstitutional because of a 1995 Supreme Court ruling that a state can’t impose its own restrictions in races for federal offices. He has hinted that he may file a federal lawsuit if any attempt is made to keep him from seeking both offices.
A Bluegrass/Survey USA poll last September showed 66 percent of state voters and 54 percent of Republicans were opposed to changing the law.
There is historical precedent for running for both the presidency or vice presidency and Congress at the same time, most recently in 2012 when U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, was re-elected to his House seat in Wisconsin.
Vice President Joe Biden also won Senate re-election in 2008 on the same day he was elected vice president, as did Lyndon Johnson in 1960.
The only other senator up for re-election in 2016 considering a White House bid, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, has said he will give up his Senate seat if he pursues the Republican presidential nomination.
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